2011 Brownlow

[brent-83]

I am not totally convinced on Judd just yet personally.

[Mr_Willy]

"YET"??

Does that mean something over the next couple of weeks may convince you otherwise

[brent-83]

"YET"??

Does that mean something over the next couple of weeks may convince you otherwise

Yep, more detailed analysis of my stats. There is some method to the madness..

[Johno6]

http://www.phantombrownlowmedal.com.au/

FYI

[Q.]

Any word on multi betting options this year?

[brent-83]

Any word on multi betting options this year?

Victorian TAB (the only one that allowed it last year) have not allowed team leader multi betting this year. Seems like the gig might be up.

Still a chance at value with the trifectas I reckon and maybe group betting (if that is released).

[overloaded]

so what are the most votes for each teams odds, can someone post them all.

[MAY-Z]

so what are the most votes for each teams odds, can someone post them all.

not much point - most good things are between $1.01 and $1.05 this year, i think 2 teams had 2 players under $2 each which shows they have no idea how to set these markets

priddis was at 2.75 when they opened but after about 15 mins he is now odds-on

[Dutchy]

Stop wasting money and just put it all on Judd.



Still $1.92 at Betfair...30c better than Sportsbet and Centrebet.....what top value.

Nuts if you take anyone odds on in Brownlow...

People are pushing pretty hard to have multis allowed on the Sportsbet facebook page.

IM sure someone will, they let you multi everything else.

At the end of the day if you like something then you dont need to multi, just back it straight out...

[Squids]

It's not nuts if its a lock, people deserved to get burnt backing Swan last year, 40 possesions, 5 damaging possesions, was never going to win.

No one is going to come close to Judd. As a Carlton supporter people saying Murphy had a better year are "nuts" when the game is there to be won, there is one guy who said "lets go" and it's not Murphy.

Goodes ----> completely stunk it up at the start of the year, a couple of decent games late and apparently he is a chance, give me a break.

[CK]

I am not totally convinced on Judd just yet personally.

Couldn't agree more, Brent. He could easily go the opening five rounds without polling, as well as the last three rounds (which includes a bye). He may well win it, but if anyone really thinks $1.92 or so is value, then best of luck. Would probably do better in trying to nut out a top 5 chance, or a club votes that is paying more.

Same with anybody taking odds-on about Matthew Priddis being West Coast's top votegetter. Saying on one hand he can be the club's top votegetter, while being a $126 chance to win the Medal, while Dean Cox is probably about right as a $26 chance to win the Medal- anyone taking that is taking a big risk, IMHO. I have Cox polling considerably better than Priddis, with Andrew Embley even a chance to outpoll Priddis.

Adam Goodes' season is a lot more than just the last few rounds too, ignore him at your peril.

[Squids]

Cox has woeful polling history, I would avoid him.

Goodes stunk it up badly, so badly that over half way through the season Jude Bolton (not a big vote getter) was leading the Swans most votes market. He might scrape a top5 but win, NO WAY.


I actually have a feeling the player to come 2nd will be ineligible to win....

[Johno6]

Mitchell? Wish he wasn't unable to win it. Coz he could go very close

[brent-83]

I am not totally convinced on Judd just yet personally.

Couldn't agree more, Brent. He could easily go the opening five rounds without polling, as well as the last three rounds (which includes a bye). He may well win it, but if anyone really thinks $1.92 or so is value, then best of luck. Would probably do better in trying to nut out a top 5 chance, or a club votes that is paying more.

Same with anybody taking odds-on about Matthew Priddis being West Coast's top votegetter. Saying on one hand he can be the club's top votegetter, while being a $126 chance to win the Medal, while Dean Cox is probably about right as a $26 chance to win the Medal- anyone taking that is taking a big risk, IMHO. I have Cox polling considerably better than Priddis, with Andrew Embley even a chance to outpoll Priddis.

Adam Goodes' season is a lot more than just the last few rounds too, ignore him at your peril.

Judd is definitely an interesting one. I reckon the first 5 rounds will tell you if he will win or not. If he gets 5+ votes in the first 5 rounds I find it hard to believe anyone can catch him.

Murphy I am not as sold on as everyone else seems to be, however if Judd does not poll as well as expected I can see him being the one that gets the lions share of the votes.

Would be interested in your thoughts to Goodes total votes. I can see him in the 20-24 margin personally as I think he had atleast 12 votes in the last 5 rounds. Not too sure about his start and middle of the season though. Hard one to gauge as OKeefe and Bolton has very good starts to the year and Goodes was not playing like he did in the last quarter of the season.

I've taken Judd-Swan-Pendlebury and Judd-Pendlebury-Swan trifecta for the time being with a view of adding some more bets soon.

[Johno6]

http://www.phantombrownlowmedal.com.au/ ... dam-goodes

rounds 2 and 3 phantom brownlow has goodes as definate 3 votes (not saying he will get them)
plus 3 other games he should poll in...(refering to the first half of the year)


i wouldnt exactly call that "stinkin it up" other wise id be happy to stink it up every year.

[MAY-Z]

I am not totally convinced on Judd just yet personally.

Couldn't agree more, Brent. He could easily go the opening five rounds without polling, as well as the last three rounds (which includes a bye). He may well win it, but if anyone really thinks $1.92 or so is value, then best of luck. Would probably do better in trying to nut out a top 5 chance, or a club votes that is paying more.

Same with anybody taking odds-on about Matthew Priddis being West Coast's top votegetter. Saying on one hand he can be the club's top votegetter, while being a $126 chance to win the Medal, while Dean Cox is probably about right as a $26 chance to win the Medal- anyone taking that is taking a big risk, IMHO. I have Cox polling considerably better than Priddis, with Andrew Embley even a chance to outpoll Priddis.

Adam Goodes' season is a lot more than just the last few rounds too, ignore him at your peril.

Judd is definitely an interesting one. I reckon the first 5 rounds will tell you if he will win or not. If he gets 5+ votes in the first 5 rounds I find it hard to believe anyone can catch him.

Murphy I am not as sold on as everyone else seems to be, however if Judd does not poll as well as expected I can see him being the one that gets the lions share of the votes.

Would be interested in your thoughts to Goodes total votes. I can see him in the 20-24 margin personally as I think he had atleast 12 votes in the last 5 rounds. Not too sure about his start and middle of the season though. Hard one to gauge as OKeefe and Bolton has very good starts to the year and Goodes was not playing like he did in the last quarter of the season.

I've taken Judd-Swan-Pendlebury and Judd-Pendlebury-Swan trifecta for the time being with a view of adding some more bets soon.

i have goodes on 24, judd on 28 but i have judd polling in teh first 2 rounds and i know some people dont - if he doesnt poll in tehe first 2 games i cant see him winning

[brent-83]

http://www.phantombrownlowmedal.com.au/player/521/adam-goodes

rounds 2 and 3 phantom brownlow has goodes as definate 3 votes (not saying he will get them)
plus 3 other games he should poll in...(refering to the first half of the year)


i wouldnt exactly call that "stinkin it up" other wise id be happy to stink it up every year.

I reckon there is buckleys and none he gets 6 votes from those 2 games.

Round 2
Bolton 25 touches, 3 goals (including the go ahead goal with less than 5 minutes to play), 9 tackles and 6 frees for.
OKeefe 27 touches, 1 goal 1, 8 tackles and 3 frees for
Goodes 24 touches, 1 goal 2, 4 tackles 2 frees for.

In a close game, the votes are generally split 3 (winning team), 2 (losing team) and 1 (winning team). Best case scenario in this game IMO for Goodes is 2 votes, whereas 1 is more likely but even a possibility for 0. I honestly think that Bolton has a stranglehold on the 3 votes in this game. McGlynn was also very good in the last quarter comeback with 2 goals 2, having 15 touches and 3 goals 3 for the game.

Round 3 - This one I can see Goodes getting 3 votes. 2 goals in the final quarter come from behind win, to go with 20 odd touches. Cox, Bolton and the other dangers for votes with Bolton getting a massive 19 tackles to go with 1 goal and 20 touches. Cox with 20 touches, 2 goals, 38 hitouts the other standout.

[MAY-Z]

http://www.phantombrownlowmedal.com.au/player/521/adam-goodes

rounds 2 and 3 phantom brownlow has goodes as definate 3 votes (not saying he will get them)
plus 3 other games he should poll in...(refering to the first half of the year)


i wouldnt exactly call that "stinkin it up" other wise id be happy to stink it up every year.

I reckon there is buckleys and none he gets 6 votes from those 2 games.

Round 2
Bolton 25 touches, 3 goals (including the go ahead goal with less than 5 minutes to play), 9 tackles and 6 frees for.
OKeefe 27 touches, 1 goal 1, 8 tackles and 3 frees for
Goodes 24 touches, 1 goal 2, 4 tackles 2 frees for.

In a close game, the votes are generally split 3 (winning team), 2 (losing team) and 1 (winning team). Best case scenario in this game IMO for Goodes is 2 votes, whereas 1 is more likely but even a possibility for 0. I honestly think that Bolton has a stranglehold on the 3 votes in this game. McGlynn was also very good in the last quarter comeback with 2 goals 2, having 15 touches and 3 goals 3 for the game.

Round 3 - This one I can see Goodes getting 3 votes. 2 goals in the final quarter come from behind win, to go with 20 odd touches. Cox, Bolton and the other dangers for votes with Bolton getting a massive 19 tackles to go with 1 goal and 20 touches. Cox with 20 touches, 2 goals, 38 hitouts the other standout.

i have:

rd 2 - 2 votes
rd 3 - 3 votes

[Johno6]

19 tackles..... thats a season for some people.

all i was trying to say brent was the fact that i wouldnt call it stinkin it up the first half of the year.

[overloaded]

Thought A Pattillo at $17 wasnt bad value today.