2010 Brownlow Medal

[MAY-Z]

From looking at stats for the players, watching a number of games, and allowing for "corrections" on previous year's vote tallies (eg. its difficult to think that Swan will poll as badly as he did last year, with not as many rivals for votes like Didak and Davis were in 09), I would have thought the rough tallies for some fancies would be in the region of:

G. Ablett: 12-16 (just hasn't had the same impact this year, and a few quiet - by his standards - last few weeks, despite high possession numbers)

L. Hodge: 14-18 (will have at least 6 games with near definite no votes. Also has some big numbers in early season losses, minimising the chances of 3's)

D. Swan: 15-19 (some massive numbers in wins, which didn't have some of his usual vote takers having big games)

B. Goddard: 12-16 (he is hard to line up. Before last year, had never polled a preference vote in matches, only 3's, for his whole career. Has some early season goal tallies to boost his chances. Will share votes with a lot of teammates, suggesting a few Saints with 10+ votes)

L. Montagna: 14-18 (some of his tallies in games are huge, with high tackle counts and a reasonable free kick differential, but may also suffer from sharing votes)

P. Chapman: 13-17 (Has a big positive free differential: 24-8, with a good tackle count and high ratings in a number of key indicators, like goal assists, inside 50's etc. 4th in league for disposals despite missing a game)

C. Judd: 13-21 (Yes, this is a big range, but he is really hard to line up at the best of times. Opening five games huge, with four of them wins. Has very good possession tallies in some medium to narrow losses, and obviously an umpire favorite, could be at either end of this tally)

Just some thoughts anyway

some pretty reasonable estimates there i would have thought

i think ablett will suffer this year - 2 years a go bartel had a better year than his brownlow year but polled stuff all votes, then last season cooney had some massive games which went unnoticed, a couple of yars ago swan had big votes in a surprise year then last year was clearly deserving so there is a definite correction by the umpires year to year.

my top 5 so far for ths season are:

hodge (especially as he may have a correction factor after the last couple of seasons)
swan
chapman
hayes
judd

[mighty_tiger_79]

does anyone follow champion data ratings??

[CoverKing]

does anyone follow champion data ratings??

Yep and montagna is winning IIRC

[CK]

Joel Selwood has had a purple patch the last five rounds. Possible votes also in rounds 6, 7, 8, 10. May be coming from too far back though.

[bulldog2004]

No one here has mentioned any Western Bulldog players. Cooney, Boyd, Griffen, Lake???????? Surely one of these will poll well.

[CK]

Judd as if

At least 2, more likely 3 votes last night against Essendon.

Bulldog2004 - I reckon the Western Bulldogs are one of the more difficult teams to line up wth this. Would have thought Boyd could be on up to 15, Cooney around 12. Lake is one that is going to be a real wildcard there, though.

[CoverKing]

10 each way on Brian Lake for the Brownlow at $101

Bit of a long shot but if ever a defender was to win it, this is the year. I know Scarlett was a chance one year and polled bugger all, but hopefully its not the case this year!

[White Line Fever]

I just put $10 @81 for Boyd.
He is 3rd in the comp for average disposals and at the end of the day it is an umpire doing the votes not champion data or any of that stuff.

[brent-]

I am beginning to think Ablett is being too overlooked.. has a fair few potential 3 vote games..

Round 1 - 37 touches, 2 goals 2, 4 tackles (3)
Round 2 - 38 touches, 6 tackles, 2 frees for (3)
Round 3 - 33 touches, 4 goals 2, 4 tackles, 2 frees for (in a 7 pt loss, I imaginne 1 vote here, prob 2) (1.5)
Round 4 - 37 touches, 3 goals 3, 4 tackles (3)
Round 7 - 38 touches, 2 goals, 7 tackles (3)
Round 9 - 32 touches, 1 goal 2, 3 tackles (highest cats possesion winner - equal with Bartel) (1.5)
Round 10 - 32 touches, 2 goals 2, 4 tackles (Selwood 3 votes in this game, Chapman and Ablett to fight out 1 & 2) (1)
Round 14 - 33 touches, 1 goal, 5 tackles (1)
Round 17 - 26 touches, 5 goals, 2 frees for (Selwood 40+ touches, Ablett gets 2) (2)
Round 18 - 29 touches, 3 goals, 4 tackles (Johnson 3 votes, Selwood/Ablett for the rest) (1.5)
Round 20 - 39 touches, 3 goals 1, 5 tackles (3)

I know this is best case scenario, but I reckon Ablett has 5 pretty clear cut 3 vote games (1,2,4,7,20) and quite a few smaller vote games. He gets a decent amount of tackles, kicks goals and wins possession. Proven formula.

I put his total as it stands from 17-23.

[Johno6]

i really agree brent...

im thinkin of chuckin 100 on him...

if i had the cash id chuck 500 on top 3 finish at 2.20

[Johno6]

i really agree brent...

im thinkin of chuckin 100 on him...

if i had the cash id chuck 500 on top 3 finish at 2.20

also dont mind goodes as a roughie.

would poll is most games sydney win

[The Indian]

Dane Swan Just Wins for mine

Multi up with Bazza for the Coleman & Geelong for the Flag @ $12

[CK]

Swan will not poll last night against Adelaide, but Pendlebury is very likely to get the 2 or 3, I'd think. By my calculations, this places him on around 19 or 20 votes.

Joel Selwood's last nine rounds have been very, very interesting to assess. Since Round 13 v St Kilda, he has dropped under 25 disposals only once, and has had a real impact in nearly all of these games. Probably won't poll in the Collingwood loss (23 disposals), but very influential in this run. The St K game was a loss, but may sneak a vote here. From there, he could easily pick up votes in seven of the next eight matches (which assumes none in the Collingwood game, although was awarded votes by some media outlets).

[Johno6]

anyone got the latest odds for brownlow?
whats swan n ablett?
any chance of ablett polling from fri night?
chapman possibly to get the 3?

[piccachu]

anyone got the latest odds for brownlow?
whats swan n ablett?
any chance of ablett polling from fri night?
chapman possibly to get the 3?

personally i dont think ablett should poll in friday nights game,
got a bit of it late but up untill then carazzo was making him look stupid, cam mooney gave him a slick little handball that released him to goals that no one could do anything about, his game looks good on paper but for me doesnt deserve votes chapman 3 podsiadly 2? murphy 1?

[Brodlach]

Dane Swan 2.65
Gary Ablett 6.00
Luke Hodge 7.50
Scott Pendlebury 13.00
Brendon Goddard 14.00
Chris Judd 16.00
Joel Selwood 21.00
Adam Goodes 26.00
Lenny Hayes 31.00
Aaron Sandilands 31.00
Leigh Montagna 41.00
Brent Harvey 51.00
Adam Cooney 61.00
Jimmy Bartel 61.00
Daniel Cross 81.00
Brian Lake 81.00

[Johno6]

Dane Swan 2.65
Gary Ablett 6.00
Luke Hodge 7.50
Scott Pendlebury 13.00
Brendon Goddard 14.00
Chris Judd 16.00
Joel Selwood 21.00
Adam Goodes 26.00
Lenny Hayes 31.00
Aaron Sandilands 31.00
Leigh Montagna 41.00
Brent Harvey 51.00
Adam Cooney 61.00
Jimmy Bartel 61.00
Daniel Cross 81.00
Brian Lake 81.00

I might chuck 5 or 10 on these guys

[OnSong]

Montagna and Goddard must be considered value.

[brent-]

Dane Swan 2.65
Gary Ablett 6.00
Luke Hodge 7.50
Scott Pendlebury 13.00
Brendon Goddard 14.00
Chris Judd 16.00
Joel Selwood 21.00
Adam Goodes 26.00
Lenny Hayes 31.00
Aaron Sandilands 31.00
Leigh Montagna 41.00
Brent Harvey 51.00
Adam Cooney 61.00
Jimmy Bartel 61.00
Daniel Cross 81.00
Brian Lake 81.00

They are the ones that I consider value.

Hayes unfortunately missing on the weekend hurts his chances I think.

[OnSong]

I'm putting $10 EW on Dal Santo and Goddard.