by Oaksnaf » Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:25 pm
Good on you for putting your balls on the line. Those who nit-pick at the losing selections obviously have nothing better to do than boost their ego's. Because it's not your cash that is being lost.
A P/L would be nice. Especially since your providing regular tips in the one thread.
As for the BIG V word. Value is subjective. We all know that. I personally think it is the most over-used word in racing. If the JC thread found so much value, then they would return more than $100 on average per assessed market. But there is no way of proving that as no-one assessed the markets, well at least they didn't post them.
In a way this thread is a little bit funny. OH that selection won't win because Davey Carlson has selected it. While he might be losing OVERALL, on an individual selection you need to really justify and reason with yourself if there is any value/edge in laying Davey's selection. Or laying the non-selection.
More lay bets will get matched than back bets. And laying has a better edge in long term pools.
But back on topic.
You really need to narrow down your area of bets if your analysing form. Because like it or not, we can't know everything!
Extend the study time per selection and assess their chances. Mark down the influencial factors and how important they are. If you can't accurately assess their winning chances, what hope do you have of getting any other bets like OVER 2.5, HT/FT.
Lets face it. ANYONE can tip. Anyone can be a winning tipster on any given day. Even your grandmother or a grade 6 student could pluck some freakish results out of mid air. But we shouldn't rely on pot luck. We should back our judgement and actually do it properly rather than being a wannabe tipster who has to win each day just to support his ego and to SHOW OFF to fellow posters.
Punting is a big ego thing. And I think some people here and on other places concentrate more on stroking their ego than they do winning money......because it's easy to lie on here and HIDE the losing bets, but SHOW the winning ones.
Enough rambling. Happy punting.... but if your going to stroke your ego. At least have a proper go.