by Smart Punting » Fri Mar 11, 2011 4:14 pm
Round 1 tips:
•2.5units - Roosters -1.5 @ $1.92 (C)
•2units - West Tigers -2.0 @ $2.00 (SB)
•0.75unit - Storm 1-12 @ $3.10 (S)
2011 Season Bets
•2units - Roosters top 4 @ $2.65 (C/SB)
•2units - West Tigers top 4 @ $2.50 (SB)
•1unit - Roosters Premiers @ $11 (S)
•1unit - West Tigers Premiers @ $8 (C)
•0.5unit - Quinella - Dragons/West Tigers @ $19 (SB)
•0.5unit - Quinella - Dragons/Roosters @ $21 (C/S/SB)
2011 NRL Season Preview
The NRL Season is back and the teams just can't wait to get on the field. We had a solid 2010 where were just under even (-4.45units), but we are confident that we will improve on that this season. Once again it is another very open season, with many teams looking like the could play semi finals football. Last year it was the Roosters who were the bolters of the year, who will it be this season?
The favourites and last years premiers the Dragons are going to be the side to beat again this year. They play an uncomprimising style based on defence, which they are so good at. They make minimal turnovers and although they dont score big, they dont need to when they can keep the opposistion to 10pts or less. They do play 7 of their first 10 games away from home, so there is a good chance their odds might blow out a bit, which would then be the time to jump on.
The next line of betting has the Roosters, West Tigers and Rabbitohs. The latter is the only team that havent proven themselves yet, they have a great forward pack and the addition of Greg Inglis, arguably the worlds best league player, is only going to help. They should start to come together a few weeks into the season. The Roosters and West Tigers are both quality sides and now they have to take the next step and they should both be looking for a top 4 spot.
The Storm were the story of last year and you can take little from their season as they were playing for nothing. Although they had the 5th best record, imagine if they actually cared. Should find themselves back in the finals, but losing Inglis will hurt. The Bulldogs are another team who had a very dispointing season. They could hardly string 2 wins together. They have enough quality but we have to wait and see if they can put it all together.
The Titans suprised a few last season by making the top 4 before losing in the semis to the Roosters. They are a great home side and have plenty skill throughout the side. Will be playing finals again. The Eels are an interesting side. Like a handful of teams they were great one week, shocking the next. The did play in the GF in 2009 and they still have the players to do that. Another 'watch this space' team.
There is only 8 spots up for grabs in the finals and few of these teams will be unlucky to miss out. The Broncos missed the finals for the first time in a very long time, they may just sneak in. The Warriors and Panthers will be around the mark, as will the Raiders who all played finals football last year. The Sea Eagles may be sliding down the table, but can mix it with the top teams on their day. The Knights are an underated side who can improve on last year. The that leaves us with the Cowboys and Sharks who will cause the odd upset but will struggle to get out of the bottom 4.
It does look like a great season ahead. In a month or two we may just look at the premiership odds as there is likely to be some value around as we have seen how teams come home with a wet sail in the past couple of years.