AFL Finals - Week 2
Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:27 amGeelong v Port Friday night
Sydney v Carlton Saturday night
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Something like 24 of the last 26 semi-finals have been won by the team who finished top 4 and lost the first week ( Geelong / Sydney ) and this week looks likely to be the same outcome. Or is it?
Port would be the bigger upset of the two and Carlton would also not be fancied but both will head into this weeks games full of confidence after beating more fancied opponents last weekend. Remember, Port and Carlton fought out a close one in the final minor round game at Footy Park. This seems to have hardened them for the first week of finals, but will it be their down fall this week, players getting tired.
Geelong v Port - Heading over tomorrow morning for this one, pretty excited about what the game has in store.
Geelongs 9 consecutive wins over Port has them the favourite to keep this run going (along with finishing 2nd during the minor round), but the wins in Melbourne have been at Cat Park where they simply strangle the life out of opponents, the extra space at the G might give Port a chance to use the pace the young side posseses.
Enright is a loss for Geelong, no doubt. He held Wingard to almost no impact in the game played recently between the two sides and is one of Geelongs crucial back half generals. More will fall to Bartel to do and I'd expect Monfries to go to Bartel and continue his defensive forward role on him. Monfries got off the chain last time to boot 7 majors, some of them after the game had been won when Geelong were 51 points up at half time. Port ran that game out in the last quarter, or Geelong shut down, either way it was a 25 point margin at the final siren.
Again this week Geelongs ruck stocks will be tested by the in-form Matt Lobbe who had 59 hit-outs against them last time round and this is where Port get the very first of the advantages, hitouts to advantage. Lobbe must not only get first hand on it, he must use it to advantage by hitting it down Ebert, Boak and Wines' throats. Of course, Selwood and co. will be doing their best to read it off hands and get the ball quickly to Podsiadly (who Port seem to never cover) and the returning Hawkins. (LOL - "turning" - like he can do that!)
Port always struggle to match Pods and Hawkins up, I think we get it the wrong way round. Carlile goes to Hawkins and Trengove to Pods. I'd flip it around this week, but I'm not the coach.
Johnson in the front half will perhaps be shaded by Tom Jonas and Cassisi will take him when he moves onto the ball. He too is often too good for Port defenders and must be held for Port to be a chance. Easier said than done.
With a wet night predicted in Melbourne the game might just be a slog, not the fast paced running game Port will want.
Having said that, I expect it to be fairly close. History suggests the Cats will win. I hope not, but I'd say Geelong by 17 points. If Port are within 3 goals at 3/4 time, it might be a different story.
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I'll leave Sydney v Carlton to one of their supporters to preview - my tip - Sydney by 9 points.
Sydney v Carlton Saturday night
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Something like 24 of the last 26 semi-finals have been won by the team who finished top 4 and lost the first week ( Geelong / Sydney ) and this week looks likely to be the same outcome. Or is it?
Port would be the bigger upset of the two and Carlton would also not be fancied but both will head into this weeks games full of confidence after beating more fancied opponents last weekend. Remember, Port and Carlton fought out a close one in the final minor round game at Footy Park. This seems to have hardened them for the first week of finals, but will it be their down fall this week, players getting tired.
Geelong v Port - Heading over tomorrow morning for this one, pretty excited about what the game has in store.
Geelongs 9 consecutive wins over Port has them the favourite to keep this run going (along with finishing 2nd during the minor round), but the wins in Melbourne have been at Cat Park where they simply strangle the life out of opponents, the extra space at the G might give Port a chance to use the pace the young side posseses.
Enright is a loss for Geelong, no doubt. He held Wingard to almost no impact in the game played recently between the two sides and is one of Geelongs crucial back half generals. More will fall to Bartel to do and I'd expect Monfries to go to Bartel and continue his defensive forward role on him. Monfries got off the chain last time to boot 7 majors, some of them after the game had been won when Geelong were 51 points up at half time. Port ran that game out in the last quarter, or Geelong shut down, either way it was a 25 point margin at the final siren.
Again this week Geelongs ruck stocks will be tested by the in-form Matt Lobbe who had 59 hit-outs against them last time round and this is where Port get the very first of the advantages, hitouts to advantage. Lobbe must not only get first hand on it, he must use it to advantage by hitting it down Ebert, Boak and Wines' throats. Of course, Selwood and co. will be doing their best to read it off hands and get the ball quickly to Podsiadly (who Port seem to never cover) and the returning Hawkins. (LOL - "turning" - like he can do that!)
Port always struggle to match Pods and Hawkins up, I think we get it the wrong way round. Carlile goes to Hawkins and Trengove to Pods. I'd flip it around this week, but I'm not the coach.
Johnson in the front half will perhaps be shaded by Tom Jonas and Cassisi will take him when he moves onto the ball. He too is often too good for Port defenders and must be held for Port to be a chance. Easier said than done.
With a wet night predicted in Melbourne the game might just be a slog, not the fast paced running game Port will want.
Having said that, I expect it to be fairly close. History suggests the Cats will win. I hope not, but I'd say Geelong by 17 points. If Port are within 3 goals at 3/4 time, it might be a different story.
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I'll leave Sydney v Carlton to one of their supporters to preview - my tip - Sydney by 9 points.
