SA Footy

Just over a week to go until the big night, and while Gary Ablett Jnr is currently the favorite, there are a number of contenders. Collingwood's Dane Swan, Ablett's teammate Joel Selwood, Brisbane's Simon Black, Carlton's Chris Judd, Western Bulldog Matthew Boyd, Adelaide's Bernie Vince and Scott Thompson and St Kilda trio Nick Dal Santo, Leigh Montagna and Lenny Hayes all look in with chances.

Who are everyone's picks? For what it's worth, thought that Simon Black might be hard to hold out from Ablett, Swan, Vince and Montagna.

The interesting one to assess is Bernie Vince. He has recorded 625 disposals this year, and averaging 27.2 per game, with 6 marks per game. Also laying nearly 3 tackles a match. Free kick ratio fairly reasonable (24-17 his favour - compare to Selwood with 57-33, but well ahead of Swan on 11-9), but ranking high in clearances. If he turns at round 11 with 9+ votes, he would be in for a big show. In those first 11 rounds, records 33 disposals v Coll in round 1 (win), 33 v Melb round 5 (win), 29 disp, 12 marks v Port round 6 (26 pt loss) and 36 disposals v Essendon (win). In the closing 11 rounds, he only falls below 28 disposals three times, and two of these are the losses to St Kilda and Geelong

Simon Black's numbers are very similar to his Brownlow year of 2002 - averaging around 25.7 disposals, with a free kick ratio of 28-27 and a tackle count of 112 - close to five a game.

Gary Ablett Jnr's numbers are high in most areas - averaging 34.5 disposals a match, free kick ratio of 23-21, with just under 4 tackles a game, and 4 marks a game.

Dane Swan's numbers are revealing - averaging 31.7 disposals a game, with just under 7 marks a match. Tackle count is lowish, with 3 per match, and has one of the lower goal tallies of the leading contenders (17: Ablett is on 24, although Vince on 14 and Black lowest on 10).

Leigh Montagna, however, has some big numbers in critical areas. Averaging around 28.5 disposals a game, he has the highest tackle count with nearly 7 per match. Averaging just above 5 marks a game, his free kick count is at 26-all. Lowest goal number, however, with only 7 for the year.

The free kick count is used to indicate how often the player is under the umpire's eye and also can indicate where the player sits in terms of perceived "fairness". Nick Riewoldt, for example, has a 33-13 count in his favour.

how is joel selwoods free kick ratio???/

he gets a lot of free kicks for players trying to take his head off!

Should have added the stats for Judd, Selwood and Boyd in all of that also.

Judd has averaged around 26.5 disposals a match, but the lowest mark tally of most contenders with around 2.4 per game. Tackle count is around 4.3 per game, with the free kick ratio at 34-21. Goals for the season of 12, but note 19 behinds.

Selwood averaged close to 28 disposals a match, with nearly 4.5 marks a game. Tackle count was high, near to 5 per game and yes, the free kick ratio of 57-33 is the highest "involvement in frees" of any player this year. Only 10 goals for the year, however.

Matthew Boyd has some interesting numbers. A possession average of nearly 29, with a mark average just a tick under 5 per game. Tackles average around 3.2 per game, with a fairly low free kick ratio of 17-12, but finishing with 15 goals and only 5 behinds.

Scott Thompson started with a blaze but faded slightly over the last 4 rounds. Averages close to 26 disposals a match, there is a high handball to kick ratio in it, running around 11-15. Averaging nearly 5 tackles a game, he has a high "free kick involvement" of 31-24, but only kicked 9 goals this season, his lowest for some time.

Big games for him in wins included 29 disposals - Rnd 4, Melb (8 kicks, 21 h/b); 30 disp. - Round 9, Carlton (16, 14); 38 disp, round 10, Hawthorn (13 k, 25 h/b); 33 disp, round 11, Ess (17 k, 16 h/b); 31 disp, round 12, North Melb (14 k, 17 h/b). In losses, has 34 disp v WB in round 7 and 35 v Coll in round 19.

i have a stack of cash on someone you havnt mentioned............Adam Goodes.

statistically, has had a better year than in '03 and '06 when he won his other two. although not winning as many games as in previous years may hurt a little, he hasnt had many games where his team mates may steal the votes.

and i'm pretty sure i heard somewhere, that he is the only player in brownlow history to poll more than 20 votes in 3 consecutive years. a proven vote getter, that umpires love!

Current market with site sponsor:

Gary Ablett 3.00
Dane Swan 4.50
Chris Judd 7.00
Adam Goodes 7.00
Joel Selwood 8.00
Nick Dal Santo 8.00
Leigh Montagna 10.00
Brendon Goddard 11.00
Simon Black 12.00
Matthew Boyd 16.00
Nick Riewoldt 17.00
Scott Thompson (Adel) 34.00
Lenny Hayes 41.00
Marc Murphy 41.00
Bernie Vince 41.00
Bryce Gibbs 51.00
Jonathan Brown 67.00
Alan Didak 101.00
Adam Cooney 151.00
Ryan Okeefe 201.00
Andrew Mcleod 201.00
Paul Chapman 251.00


Top 5

Gary Ablett 1.31
Dane Swan 1.58
Chris Judd 2.00
Joel Selwood 2.00
Nick Dal Santo 2.00
Adam Goodes 2.00
Brendon Goddard 2.60
Simon Black 2.65
Leigh Montagna 2.75
Nick Riewoldt 3.50
Matthew Boyd 3.50
Players Not Quoted 6.00
Bernie Vince 7.50
Lenny Hayes 7.50
Marc Murphy 7.50
Scott Thompson 9.00
Jonathan Brown 12.00
Bryce Gibbs 12.00
Alan Didak 15.00
Adam Cooney 26.00
Andrew Mcleod 34.00

Leader at round 11

Gary Ablett 1.73
Chris Judd 6.00
Steve Johnson 10.00
Nick Dal Santo 11.00
Dane Swan 14.00
Leigh Montagna 14.00
Joel Selwood 15.00
Adam Goodes 21.00
Nick Riewoldt 21.00
Marc Murphy 34.00
Lenny Hayes 34.00
Simon Black 41.00
Paul Chapman 41.00
Scott Pendlebury 41.00
Brent Stanton 51.00
Dean Cox 51.00
Brendon Goddard 67.00
Leon Davis 67.00
Simon Goodwin 67.00
Jonathan Brown 101.00
Tyson Edwards 101.00
Matthew Boyd 126.00
Brad Sewell 126.00

Simon Black was gonna say my outsider but he isnt really is he

Dane Swan is my pick with Ablett second. If you want a smokey get on Matty Boyd.

regards,

REB

I'll be spewing if Bernie Vince gets up. I mentioned to the missus at the start of the year that he would be a good smokie bet (he was at some stupid odd like 300/1 or something) but did nothing about it.

Adam Goodes for me.

I've got the following Brownlow bets:

Goddard > St flag @ $21

Ablett > Cats flag @ $17

Selwood > Sts flag @ $22

Over the course of the year, I've accumulated too many bets to list here

Even if I pick the winner I reckon there's a good chance I'll lose money lol

I have several other Brownlow bets, but none of them a possibility.

Like outsiders, Salopek @ $301, Rioli @ $251, Franklin @ $61 and a few more to boot.

Booney wrote:I have several other Brownlow bets, but none of them a possibility.

Like outsiders, Salopek @ $301, Rioli @ $251, Franklin @ $61 and a few more to boot.

Salopek's a huge chance.

Bum Crack wrote:

Booney wrote:I have several other Brownlow bets, but none of them a possibility.

Like outsiders, Salopek @ $301, Rioli @ $251, Franklin @ $61 and a few more to boot.

Salopek's a huge chance.

I say this with all due respect. Shut up!

Key position players have been largely overlooked in recent times but I'll be backing Nick Reiwoldt to break that trend and win it this year.

Bum Crack wrote:Adam Goodes for me.

He's definately an umpires pet.

NO-MERCY wrote:

Bum Crack wrote:Adam Goodes for me.

He's definately an umpires pet.

and a good play to go with it

Constance_Perm wrote:Over the course of the year, I've accumulated too many bets to list here

Even if I pick the winner I reckon there's a good chance I'll lose money lol

in the same boat here CP!

i rekon my standout bet was chucking $20 on Goodes at around about round 15 when he was at $21.

question, i have a few quinellas going, mostly involving GAJ, swan, goodes and Black. it says "pick first and second in any order" what if two of those lads come a draw, and someone i dont have, like matty boyd, comes second. technically, i havnt picked 1st and 2nd, just 1st and 1st. what would happen to my bet there?

the_big_bang wrote:

Constance_Perm wrote:Over the course of the year, I've accumulated too many bets to list here

Even if I pick the winner I reckon there's a good chance I'll lose money lol

in the same boat here CP!

i rekon my standout bet was chucking $20 on Goodes at around about round 15 when he was at $21.

question, i have a few quinellas going, mostly involving GAJ, swan, goodes and Black. it says "pick first and second in any order" what if two of those lads come a draw, and someone i dont have, like matty boyd, comes second. technically, i havnt picked 1st and 2nd, just 1st and 1st. what would happen to my bet there?

well if its a tie, then no one will come 2nd will they? U will get ur win if its the 2 blokes u pick tie for the CHAS. but if u have say goodes and boyd win it and GAJ comes next, which is third, u will not win if u were to have goodes and GAJ as ur quinella.