Mark Riccuito:
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/queensland-beckons-kurt-tippett-is-on-his-way-home-writes-adelaide-crows-champion-mark-ricciuto/story-e6frf3e3-1226449749029I hate to say it, but I think Kurt Tippett is going home.
Most people know I like a punt, and if I was to have my last $20 on something now, it would be Tippett won't be at Adelaide Crows next season.
In fact, I think it's greater than a 90 per cent chance.
Base it on this - if he wanted to stay in Adelaide, had a five-year deal on the table for big money (in the vicinity of $3 million to $3.5 million) and had just suffered three serious concussions, why wouldn't he sign?
He'd be putting pen to paper as quickly as he could.
Even if he did not have the concussions, why wouldn't he be signing?
If it was over money, he would have been asking for more, but he hasn't. He has put it on hold.
He would be the Crows' highest-paid player at a club with a great future which can provide everything he needs to set himself up both on and off the field.
History has shown that players who put their contracts on hold until the end of the year are the ones who walk away. Gary Ablett, Tom Scully and Jack Gunston come to mind.
Compare them to the way that Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane and Taylor Walker handled their long-term deals this season and it's quite a contrast. Players know if they want to stay or go.
It's not that hard a decision, especially when you've had plenty of time to think.
Another interesting fact in the Tippett case is that shortly after the mid-season break in which he went home to contemplate his future with his family, his relationship with his Adelaide girlfriend ended.
It looks to me that his mind was made up there and then and he didn't want the relationship to stand in the way of his decision.
We know Tippett has always said he's a "beach boy at heart" and we know he has two properties on the Gold Coast.
We know he is very close to his family and we know his dad plays a major role in his decision making.
There's nothing wrong with any of what I've mentioned above.
It was very interesting to me that last week Adelaide declared their hand on the fact that they were chasing free agents Travis Cloke and Brendon Goddard.
It's highly unusual for Adelaide to go public with these plans, which says to me that maybe even they think Tippett's chances of going home are growing by the day.
I wonder whether it was more of a ploy towards the Tippett camp that life will go on without him.
One thing that Kurt Tippett needs to base his decision on is whether he values winning premierships more than being at home.
The Crows' premiership window is well and truly open, in fact it will open even wider in the next two years. Whereas Gold Coast's window is closed and will be for at least another three years and Brisbane's has a pretty big padlock on it at the moment.
Tippett needs to remember what it was like last year when the Crows were floundering in the bottom eight and think back to how much he was enjoying his football then and compare that to what it's been like this year.
Gold Coast should one day be a very good football side but they still have a long way to go with queries remaining on coach Guy McKenna and whether AFL footy can flourish there.
Crowds of 10,000 to 15,000 will be the norm compared to 40,000-plus at the new Adelaide Oval.
Brisbane on the other hand still have a lot of work on and off the field to get back to their glory days.
But if Tippett has made up his mind, where does that leave Adelaide?
Last year I wrote that the Crows should trade Tippett because of a rumoured contract clause that if he wanted to return to Queensland, Adelaide would only receive a second-round draft pick, which is clearly inadequate.
I've since learned that the 'clause' may have been more of a gentleman's agreement rather than one written into a contract and therefore might not be honoured at all.
If this is the case then the No.1 priority for Adelaide must be to get the best deal possible at the trade table.
Right in front of me. RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME!