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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:04 pm
by Bum Crack
I'm doing it wrong then. 3 leg multi it is for me tonight.

Cats by 80+
Hawkins for 6 or more
Dangerfield 40+

13/1

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:05 pm
by Lightning McQueen
Booney wrote:Hey, he landed it then brilliant for him.


Yeah, I'm sure employment productivity has been at an all time high over the past half an hour :lol: :lol:

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:08 pm
by Lightning McQueen
Bum Crack wrote:I'm doing it wrong then. 3 leg multi it is for me tonight.

Cats by 80+
Hawkins for 6 or more
Dangerfield 40+

13/1

Ha, I done the first two and it was at 226's, it wouldn't let me put Danger in.

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:09 pm
by Jim05
Bum Crack wrote:I'm doing it wrong then. 3 leg multi it is for me tonight.

Cats by 80+
Hawkins for 6 or more
Dangerfield 40+

13/1
If you just did
Cats win
Danger most possessions GR1
Hawkins most goals GR1
$45
Swap Hawkins for Dixon (both same price) it is $131

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:15 pm
by mighty_tiger_79
Notice how Trader and Dutchy havent posted.... i reckon they are conceding defeat that there is nothing wrong with SGM[emoji3][emoji3][emoji3]

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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:20 pm
by Bum Crack
Lightning McQueen wrote:
Bum Crack wrote:I'm doing it wrong then. 3 leg multi it is for me tonight.

Cats by 80+
Hawkins for 6 or more
Dangerfield 40+

13/1

Ha, I done the first two and it was at 226's, it wouldn't let me put Danger in.

LOL

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:27 pm
by Trader
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Notice how Trader and Dutchy havent posted.... i reckon they are conceding defeat that there is nothing wrong with SGM[emoji3][emoji3][emoji3]

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk


Just catching up now.

And by the way, you'll notice he only did 3 legs, not 10. ;)

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:29 pm
by Bum Crack
3 leg multi

Danger most goals group 1
Danger most possessions group 1
Cats by 25+

357/1

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:31 pm
by Booney
Trader wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Notice how Trader and Dutchy havent posted.... i reckon they are conceding defeat that there is nothing wrong with SGM[emoji3][emoji3][emoji3]

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk


Just catching up now.

And by the way, you'll notice he only did 3 legs, not 10. ;)


Well he's an idiot because the more you bet the more you win. Everyone knows that.

PS - I used my $20 bonus bet on GWS to win last night so your system is shit too. :lol:

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:31 pm
by mighty_tiger_79
Trader wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Notice how Trader and Dutchy havent posted.... i reckon they are conceding defeat that there is nothing wrong with SGM[emoji3][emoji3][emoji3]

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk


Just catching up now.

And by the way, you'll notice he only did 3 legs, not 10. ;)
Yep, i dont believe 10 legs either.

So the new rule is make sure there are options from both teams[emoji16][emoji16]

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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:36 pm
by Trader
Jim05 wrote:I don’t know how it works with Sportsbet but apparently in a SGM if you include 1 leg that is from a different team you get extra. For example I’ve just done a dummy

Port win $1.74
Rockcliff leading possessions GR1 $6
Georgiades leading goals GR1 $12
Payout $101

However change Georgiades to Myers from Geelong who is also $12 and it turns into $226


Correct, it's what is referred to in the industry as an 'accumulator dependency'.

The bookies got wrecked several years ago when some mathematicians teamed up with some political polling groups and worked out fairly quickly that there were a few key seats that would swing the entire election. Eden Monaro for example always fell to the party that happened to win the entire election.

The bookies also knew this, and as such, they had overall markets of roughly $1.90 libs, $1.90 labor, and similarly $1.90 a piece in the Eden Monaro seat, seems fair...... until you multi them up.

Take the libs to win both and you get $3.61, take labor to win both, also at $3.61, sit back and wait for your bet to cash in. (Effectively you've taken $1.805 for the seat to fall to the party that wins overall).

Now repeat that for a number of other key seats and before you know it, even if there is the odd seat that breaks the rules, you make bulk cash.

After that bookies just blocked anything that could be linked for a number of years.

More recently they've sharpened up the algorithm that spits out prices in the same game multi and that gives them protection.
EG: If you pick Hawkins for first goal scorer, then also add in Hawkins anytime goal scorer, the second leg won't increase your price, as it's already happened for the first leg to get up.

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:38 pm
by Trader
Booney wrote:
Trader wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Notice how Trader and Dutchy havent posted.... i reckon they are conceding defeat that there is nothing wrong with SGM[emoji3][emoji3][emoji3]

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk


Just catching up now.

And by the way, you'll notice he only did 3 legs, not 10. ;)


Well he's an idiot because the more you bet the more you win. Everyone knows that.

PS - I used my $20 bonus bet on GWS to win last night so your system is shit too. :lol:


Your fault, I told you to back a long priced option, Sydney at $4.75 is clearly greater than GWS's $1.20 lol

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:46 pm
by Lightning McQueen
Trader wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Notice how Trader and Dutchy havent posted.... i reckon they are conceding defeat that there is nothing wrong with SGM[emoji3][emoji3][emoji3]

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk


Just catching up now.

And by the way, you'll notice he only did 3 legs, not 10. ;)

I do minimum of 4 to get my money back if one fails.

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:06 pm
by daysofourlives
Lightning McQueen wrote:
Jim05 wrote:I don’t know how it works with Sportsbet but apparently in a SGM if you include 1 leg that is from a different team you get extra. For example I’ve just done a dummy

Port win $1.74
Rockcliff leading possessions GR1 $6
Georgiades leading goals GR1 $12
Payout $101

However change Georgiades to Myers from Geelong who is also $12 and it turns into $226

That makes a bit more sense now as you're sort of betting against yourself.


Yep gives me trhe shits. Quite often ill have about 4 goalkickers in my multi, i like to get up to about 100/1.
If you go total points under with say 4 goalkickers the odds might be 100/1 if you go points over with the same goal kickers it comes down to about 30/1 if your lucky.

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:11 pm
by daysofourlives
Trader wrote:
Booney wrote:
Trader wrote:
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Notice how Trader and Dutchy havent posted.... i reckon they are conceding defeat that there is nothing wrong with SGM[emoji3][emoji3][emoji3]

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk


Just catching up now.

And by the way, you'll notice he only did 3 legs, not 10. ;)


Well he's an idiot because the more you bet the more you win. Everyone knows that.

PS - I used my $20 bonus bet on GWS to win last night so your system is shit too. :lol:


Your fault, I told you to back a long priced option, Sydney at $4.75 is clearly greater than GWS's $1.20 lol


Why would anyone use a bonus bet on a $1.20 or even $2 bet?
You'd have to be stupid.....oh hang on never mind carry on :D

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:08 am
by Eagles2014
Bum Crack wrote:
Lightning McQueen wrote:
Bum Crack wrote:I'm doing it wrong then. 3 leg multi it is for me tonight.

Cats by 80+
Hawkins for 6 or more
Dangerfield 40+

13/1

Ha, I done the first two and it was at 226's, it wouldn't let me put Danger in.

LOL


As much as this was taking the pi55, was actually one of the closest SGM in this thread :D

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:45 pm
by Lightning McQueen
Tonight's $3 bet:

Over 129.5
Richmond 25+
Martin most goals G1
Greenwood most disposals G1

$525 return.

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:34 pm
by mighty_tiger_79
Cmon Dusty atleast kick a goal

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Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:34 pm
by Dutchy
Jim05 wrote:One of the blokes called in “sick” today but sent a few of us this

Image


Where is the winning ticket? This just shows a pending one.

Re: The Graham Campbell Forum - AFL Punting / Same Game Mult

PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:08 pm
by Jim05
Dutchy wrote:
Jim05 wrote:One of the blokes called in “sick” today but sent a few of us this

Image


Where is the winning ticket? This just shows a pending one.
I didn’t bother asking to see it as Kelly had the most touches for the night so it was a given that the leg got up