by Booney » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:29 pm
Having been summoned to a work conference I was out of action and didn’t get around to a final round preview. I bet you all missed it. Anywho, knowing you’ve all just rolled your eyes and said “Yeah, right” I’ve taken the time to put together a preview of the first week of finals. And haven’t we had to wait for the first week of finals? Gillion and his merry men will roll out the party line that it was a success, London to a brick we don’t have a weekend next year where the highlight is old fat blokes playing out a concocted draw.
Most people will pick the same 4 winners but I think we all believe there will be one go against the popular opinion. Which one?
West Coast v Western Bulldogs –
The first of the elimination finals pits the Eagles against the Bulldogs and the two teams come into the match with vastly differing form lines and more importantly, confidence.
The Eagles have been impressive of late, West Coast come into the finals series on the back of 4 straight wins which included Hawthorn ( minus Stratton ) at home and GWS ( kicked 3 goals in the last 4 minutes ) and a very impressive win over Adelaide ( who were without Sloane and Smith ) both away. Is that form enough to seduce us into thinking they are flying? Prior to that an unexpected loss to Collingwood was preceeded by 5 straight wins, so since the loss to Adelaide at home in round 12 they’re 8-1 with 4 of the 8 wins over fellow top 8 combatants. That’s as good as anyone’s form in the last 10 weeks. 4 times over the 100 point barrier in that time. The loss of Natanui to a season ending ACL did little to slow them as journeyman Jon Giles came in and played the game of his life against Adelaide in Adelaide. The tough ask is keeping the big man fired up through the coming weeks.
By contrast the Bulldogs come in winning 6 of their last 9 ( 3 of the last 6 ) and a win with the last kick of the match over Sydney in Sydney in round 15 the last of their impressive victories over a genuine contender. Losses to Geelong and more worryingly Fremantle and St Kilda in the last 5 weeks have shown just how the depth at the kennel has been tested. A low scoring win over North and wins over Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood ( 3 points ) and the Suns hardly setting the world alight since the mid season break. In that time the 107 points against Gold Coast the only time they’ve broken the 100 point barrier since round 12 over Port Adelaide ( 100 points ). In a bold move Beveridge dropped Stringer to the VFL to send a message to all his squad to lift or be shifted. Stringer was left out of last weekend’s VFL fixture and looks like he’ll be cherry ripe to make his way back for the big clash in Perth. With Wood, Stringer, Roughead, Macrae and Liberatore coming back in they have the strongest side on paper for a while, will they, though, be match fit and ready for a knockout final?
The Eagles are clearly the form team of the bottom half of the 8 and they’re having no problems hitting the scoreboard. They also showed in Adelaide that when the web is deployed right they create space for the outside runners in Gaff and Cripps and Sheed. The Dogs have taken a bit of a punt bringing in 5 players who really only have a block of training under their belt with Wood and Liberatore coming in from ankles and Macrae and Roughead a hammy and calf respectively. Is that a risk? I think it is.
Despite the Bulldogs having named the strongest side they have had for sometime I think the Eagles at home, in front of the home crowd will be too strong in this one unless Beveridge can muster a special effort from his men. West Coast by 17 points.
Adelaide v North Melbourne –
Much like the other elimination final the Crows and the Kangaroos are coming into the cut throat match with very different form lines, although the gap isn’t what it was 4 weeks ago.
Adelaide had made Adelaide Oval their own this year, leading into the final minor round match against the Eagles the Crows had lost just once at Adelaide Oval to the Dangerfield led Geelong in round 8. The match up in round 23 against the Eagles was all about an Adelaide win and securing second spot on the ladder and gaining home final rights throughout the finals series. Not so. After a run of big wins over the bottom 3 sides ( by a collective 292 points ) and a hard fought Showdown win it led Adelaide into the Eagles match on the back of 3 straight 6 day breaks and they looked tired because of it. ( The club insisted on a Friday night fixture in the last round as a members appreciation round ). An unexpected loss and the tussle at the top saw them drop from third to 5th and onto death row. In the final round the Eagles restricted the potent Crows forward half and the midfield who hold out of the forward half were not able to hit the scoreboard. Blocking the corridor has been a success for Geelong and the Eagles against Adelaide in the last 6 weeks of the year. But it takes a special effort from the playing group to follow the coaches instructions and shutdown the Adelaide attacking unit. Can North do it?
By contrast the Kangaroos played their finals at the wrong end of the season. Sitting 9-0 they looked world beaters, in that 9 wins though only Adelaide and the Bulldogs were finals bound. Since then just 3 wins over Richmond, Collingwood and St Kilda and the Kangaroos who looked set for a third crack at being in the last 4 to finish the year slipped, no, cascaded down the ladder to find themselves battling to stay in the 8 for all but the last two rounds. A big fall from a lofty position of advantage at the midseason break. Clinging to 8th spot the erratic form of St Kilda, Melbourne and Port along with the 9 straight wins early were enough for them to hold on. They’ve since taken the extraordinary step of “farewelling” Harvey, Petrie, Firrito and Dal Santo prior to commencing their finals campaign. It was to motivate and celebrate. Has it? With it looking likely Waite will come back into the side at the expense of Daw or Petrie ( which would be a very unpopular decision ) they’re banking on older blokes with bad hips under done in a knock out final.....good plan.
This one shapes up as the most one sided of the first 4 finals, despite what the anxious Adelaide fans will have you believe. One loss to the Eagles and the confidence has been dented, perhaps the soft month prior to that ( as noted above ) had the Adelaide form looking better than it actually was. Having said that it’s far better than anything the Roos have dished up of late.
Adelaide on the home deck with the 19th men/women/children behind them by 58 points.
Geelong v Hawthorn –
Onto the Qualifying finals and the first one matches up the modern day heavy weights against each other. With 7 of the last 9 premierships shared by these two sides it’s fair to say they’ve had plenty of September action against each other in recent times. This time though it seems a little different. A load of new faces leading the Cats, some of them in the hoops for barely a year and the Hawks seemingly on their last ageing legs as they continually get written off as a premiership threat.
The Cats have had a pretty interesting year, by anyone’s standards. With 5 losses for the year and the competitions second bets percentage in second spot you would think they have been at the top of their game, but, those 5 losses have something to them. An early loss to the Giants can be forgiven, as can the loss to Sydney in round 16 at Cat Park, what can’t be forgiven or for that matter forgotten is the losses to Collingwood and Carlton in successive weeks and the loss to St Kilda leading into the Swans loss. They’ve been beaten by sides who have no right, no right at all to have beaten them. Throw in two wins over Adelaide and beating all bar Sydney in the top 8 mix you could say they are the best performed top 8 team. Might be a while ago, but the Collingwood and Carlton losses exposed perhaps more of a mental/structural weakness as opposed to personnel. They appear to have righted those wrongs but there is a weakness, you just need to find it and exploit it. One thing they’ve fixed is the forward 50 mix. Hawkins, Motlop and co are back on track.
The Hawks. What do you say about them? They’ve snaffled 6 games by under 9 points. 6. Lose 1 they’re 6th. 2 and they’re 8th, but they didn’t and they aren’t and they’ve got the double chance on their home deck to make an improbable run at their fourth in a row. How have they managed it without Roughead up front and without any real form from their ruckman? McEvoy has been less than impressive, Ceglar has improved but is out with an ACL and they’re using ex-Melbourne big man Fitzpatrick in the ruck. They’ve been without Hodge for some weeks, Frawley for some and haven’t had their best team on the park, really, at all. What they have had is Gunston (48), Rioli (44), Breust (43) Puopolo (33) and Sicily (29) all share the load when it comes to hitting the scoreboard. Geelong though have plenty of back half nouse to cover the Hawks forward options. They’ve also had Gibson controlling the back half, Burgoyne stepping up to the plate when it’s his turn and still influencing games with a handful of touches. In the middle Mitchell and Lewis still stand up when the moment comes. The moment, finals, has come.
It’s looking like a rotten night in Melbourne on Friday night with the forecast for wind and rain all day. Who does that suit? Nobody, really. The Hawks like to posses the ball and play keepys-off until they find a small target or kick to contest and back the crumbers to do the job and Geelong like to move the ball to their big targets quickly from the centre. The second best centre clearance side and its not just Dangerfield and Selwood doing that work.
Very, very tough one to pick and the betting has Geelong $1.65 and the Hawks $2.30 which, for mine, is pretty generous to Hawthorn backers. I will however agree Geelong are the favourite and pick them, by 13 points.
Sydney v GWS –
With a home preliminary final on offer for the winner this battle of the bridge is like none before it. With some left over COLA still in the mouth of the Swans they take on the monster the AFL created back in 2012 in the first of what could be many finals between the to New South Wales based clubs.
How have Sydney managed to maintain their position at the top of the table while blooding so many youngsters over the last 2 years? Behind only Brisbane (9) the Swans have debuted 7 players in the 2016 season. A remarkable effort to do so and remain at the top of the ladder. In contrast to the Hawks the Swans have dropped the close ones, 5 losses for the season and three of them by 5,4 and 1 point. All of them lost with pretty much the last kick of the day. As such, they are deserved premiership favourites. Franklin is winding up perfectly at the business end of the season, Tippett is back and looking to pair up with Naismith to form a very formidable ruck combination to feed the deepest midfield unit in the game. All Australians Hannebery, Kennedy and Parker lead the midfield group that feeds the dangerous and versatile tall Franklin, pacy mid/tall Rohan and clever small McGlynn. Have I talked them up enough?
It’s aliiiive.....IT’S ALIVE!!! The monster has awoken, perhaps ahead of time, perhaps not, either way the talk about what the AFL have created is all coming home to roost as the GWS Giants finish the h&a season in 4th place. ( Should have finished top and won me a truck load! ). Whilst the impact of the plethora of first round draft picks can’t be underestimated nor can the impact of target recruiting. Shaw in defence marshals the troops, Mumford in the middle beats everyone up and Stevie J in the front half has added the X factor and hunger for more success the kids perhaps didn’t quite have. I’d say Johnson could be the recruit of the year, perhaps not for his numbers but there’s no doubt his influence on the group has been immense. If nothing more than telling tales around the camp fire of premiership celebrations, he’s been massive for the Giants and I expect him to pop un this September when the men in orange need it.
Cracking matchup this is, in my mind, even tougher to pick than the other Qualifying Final. At either end the big men are on fire, Patton with 11 goals in the last two weeks, Franklin with 13 in the last 3. The big men at each end are on fire. Grundy on Patton and Davis on Franklin will be very important match ups. Mumford vs Naismith and Tippett, Rampe and Greene, excellent match ups from end to end.
For mine, this one is the one where the upset can come from, I’m not actually game enough to tip it, but my gut feel says upset on the cards....wise money says Sydney, by 8 points.
If you want to go quickly, go alone.
If you want to go far, go together.
