SA Footy

COOPERS STADIUM | Friday 16th August, 7:40pm

Weather forecast of 5-10mm of rain and possible thunderstorm would make it difficult for Norwood to extend their % to secure minor premiership. Can't lose the double finals chance. A win against the Roosters will be preferable even if the scores won't be high.

nwdfanparade wrote:Weather forecast of 5-10mm of rain and possible thunderstorm would make it difficult for Norwood to extend their % to secure minor premiership.

Norwood's percentage doesn't have to be large; it just has to be bigger than Sturt's, which also has to contend with the weather.

North usually play well at the Parade

Tipping an upset, North by 11 points

North by 33 or Norwood by 79.

I'm tipping a good night. 5 hours of Coopers beers inclusive in the Wolf Blass Centre!

Pseudo wrote:

nwdfanparade wrote:Weather forecast of 5-10mm of rain and possible thunderstorm would make it difficult for Norwood to extend their % to secure minor premiership.

Norwood's percentage doesn't have to be large; it just has to be bigger than Sturt's, which also has to contend with the weather.

But the weather Sturt has to contend with on Saturday afternoon will not as severe as what Norwood will have to contend with Friday night. Taking into account the better weather conditions on Saturday afternoon than Friday night, Sturt might beat WA by a massive margin to takeover Nwd's %

I am wishing for a North win. They get in the 5 .

The predicted conditions will suit Norwood. Boyd is too good for any North ruckman as it is, but one only has to think back to the 2022 Grand Final to see the havoc he reaps against North in the wet. Remember back in 2022 every North supporter was praying for a dry track, but it wasn't to be.
As to the concern about the wet affecting Norwood's percentage, a 5 goals to 2 goal victory gives rise to the same percentage as a 15 goal to 6 goal result.

robranisgod wrote:The predicted conditions will suit Norwood. Boyd is too good for any North ruckman as it is, but one only has to think back to the 2022 Grand Final to see the havoc he reaps against North in the wet. Remember back in 2022 every North supporter was praying for a dry track, but it wasn't to be.
As to the concern about the wet affecting Norwood's percentage, a 5 goals to 2 goal victory gives rise to the same percentage as a 15 goal to 6 goal result.

For one game in isolation then yes, those results would be identical. But when you consider % across an entire season though it's still beneficial to win 15 goals v 6 goals compared to 5 v 2.

He is talking about 1 game I believe. And corect.

I remember the last minor round game in 1980.

The Bays were playing Torrens at Footy Park, who were comfortably in 3rd spot with a game and percentage in hand from Sturt, who were up against West at Unley.

From memory, Torrens were ahead of the Bays early in the last quarter so there was no real fear that they were going to lose 3rd spot, even though Sturt were about 9 goals up at 3QT.

Unfortunately for them, the Bays ended up getting over the line by about 3 goals, but Sturt kicked 14 goals in the last quarter to beat West by 20 goals, and in the process lifted them into 3rd spot by a bee’s dick.

So, with Norwood and Sturt even in points and only 0.6% separating them with 2 rounds to go, anything can happen.

*edit*

Just checked the percentages, Torrens were on 26 points, 51.73%; Sturt 24 points, 50.43% going into that last round. Sturt got 3rd by 0.18%.

and despite ending 19-3 we went out in straight sets

16/8/1977
The day the king of rock n roll died
NW 16+8 =24
I will tip NW by 24

NORWOOD

League

F: Binder, Callow, Nelligan

HF: Hamilton, Twelftree, Kennerley

C: M. Carroll, Lowe, Cresswell

HB: Seymour, J. Heard, Lord

B: Wright, Donnelly, Ling

R: Boyd, Cootee, Simpson

INT: B. Carroll, O’Neill, Morris, Graham, Gale, Murley, Van Wyk

IN: O’Neill, Gale, Van Wyk

NEW: Alex Van Wyk (Athelstone)

NORTH

League

F: Lockyer, Harvey, Mackinlay

HF: Dignan, Ramsey, McInerney

C: Magor, Combe, Ramsay

HB: Spina, Raak, McCann

B: Driscoll, Hilder, O’Loughlin

R: McKenzie, Wissman, Wigg

INT: Casalini, W. Francou, Minervini, Parmore, Pfrengle, Szekely, Tasker

IN: Casalini, Francou, Tasker

NEW: Will Tasker (Brisbane VFL)

saintal wrote:

robranisgod wrote:The predicted conditions will suit Norwood. Boyd is too good for any North ruckman as it is, but one only has to think back to the 2022 Grand Final to see the havoc he reaps against North in the wet. Remember back in 2022 every North supporter was praying for a dry track, but it wasn't to be.
As to the concern about the wet affecting Norwood's percentage, a 5 goals to 2 goal victory gives rise to the same percentage as a 15 goal to 6 goal result.

For one game in isolation then yes, those results would be identical. But when you consider % across an entire season though it's still beneficial to win 15 goals v 6 goals compared to 5 v 2.

Fair call at this stage of the story. If Norwood had 31 points less, or Sturt had 31 points more, they'd currently be pretty much level on percentage, so that's the starting point. Relying on percentages of individual games at this time of year is all well and good if the scorelines are comparable.

Nerd on, sorry, play on.

According to my calculations, if Norwood wins by 60 points to 54 points and Sturt win by 100 points to 60 points, Sturt will overtake Norwood at the top of the ladder by 0.01% A Norwood win by a minimum of 6 points will keep Norwood at the top of the ladder (for this round at least).

Just realised tonight will be my first (and last) away SANFL game this season, that'd be a record since about 1973!
Bring on the Coopers!

MONSFAW by 19pts.

Norwood Oval again looks bad.