Moneyball

[redandblack]

Moneyball

I’ve read the book, but haven’t seen the film yet, but the statistical analysis inevitably leads you to wonder if its principles can be translated to Aussie Rules. Our system will only partly allow it to be effectively used for trading or drafting players, but it led me to look at football’s statistical analysis and wonder which stats are more meaningful than others.

One that immediately springs to mind is an old hobby-horse that isn't ignored by statistical gurus, but generally is by coaches and players: goalkicking accuracy. Teams fluctuate between about 45% to 65% in this area, the low and high points being extremes. Coaches are well aware of this and generally react by trying to construct a game plan that optimizes this percentage by having the ball delivered to a more favourable spot to kick goals – in front rather than on acute angles. As supporters, we all know which players in our team we’d rather have kicking for goal.

Imagine two effects of scoring a goal rather than a point. One is the obvious scoreboard pressure, the other the psychological lift the team gains against the mental letdown of missing.

Goalkicking is the main unconquered mental block in our game.

Let’s say a team scores approximately 300 goals in a season, at an accuracy rate of 50%; ie 300 goals, 300 behinds. Improve that to 65% and it becomes 390 goals, 210 behinds. Impossible, you say, but surely worthwhile investigating, a difference of nearly 4 goals a game. How many losses does that turn into wins?

Attend any football training session and I’ll guarantee that goalkicking is the least practised of the football skills. I’ve always wondered why. After all, accuracy only gives you 6 times the reward of inaccuracy.

If we delve further into footy statistics, one 2011 game comes to mind immediately. West ventured to Prospect twice and came away with two wins, but it was the second that I want to concentrate on. I, along with every other West supporter, thought Steve Morris was best on ground by a long way. He’d had 28 possessions off a half-back flank in West’s 6 goal win and many of those possessions were interceptions turned into attack with inspiring and courageous runs. As it happened, Steve was later reported and the 3 Magarey votes went to James Allan with nearly 40 possessions in a team well beaten. I watched the game live and didn’t really notice James. I watched it again on video and saw that he’d worked very hard to get to the contest, but a majority of his possessions were deep in defence, many unearned. This isn’t about James Allan, who no doubt would have had games where he should have got votes but didn’t and who is a deserved Medal winner and elite player, but more about the equal value placed on a ‘possession’.

Just as Moneyball attempts to place a different value on different statistics in baseball, there seems to be plenty of room in our game for a different look at statistical analysis.

One of these is obviously the success and failure rate of players changing clubs.

A fertile field for future analysis, perhaps.

[Dog_ger]

You need to find employment, redandblack...

[Go Legs]

ReadandBlack, would you mind repeating that, I didn't quite get your gist

Football is a simple game played by simple men and supported by even simpler wannabe coaches (supporters) stuffed up by umpires.

Therefore simply no place for nerds who see more than we (at least me) are capable of understanding

Cheers
(Preferably Coopers if it's your shout)

[redandblack]

No worries, GL, it's my shout.

Coopers it is

[am Bays]

My next book to read from my christmas list. Just finished Robbie McEwens book, currently reading Jack Gibson's biography, next will be moneyball.

On goalkicking practise, when it is practised, individually or as part of a full ground movement drill how often is it done properly?? How often to players running into an open goal at training try to do something "cute", or just chip it so it doesn't go over the fence? Rather than treating like a match and drilling the shot or if it is a set shot going back and rehersing their routine and kicking it as they would in a match.

[oldfella]

I feel R&B is on to something - a minor increase ( 1-3% percentage wise) in goal shooting accuracy would have a dramatic impact on overall season results.

[RB]

:shock:

You need to find employment, redandblack...

It's bad when a Centrals supporter tells you that...

[topsywaldron]

When 'Moneyball' was first published it was the must read book for every scout in the AFL apparently.

Mind you it still took ten years for them to work out they'd be better drafting players who could actually kick and mark rather than those who scored high on beep tests or vertical leaps.

[Hopeful Jelly]

I feel R&B is on to something - a minor increase ( 1-3% percentage wise) in goal shooting accuracy would have a dramatic impact on overall season results.

Yes, as an example, all 3 grand finals in 2011 (league, reserves, under 18) were won by teams with less scoring shots.

[SDK]

Top post RedandBlack ...... one of the best of 2011.
Totally agree goal kicking is an area neglected and could change a teams fortunes dramatically.
James Allen's soft ball gets compared to hard ball gets would be 6 to 1. Give me the hard ball winner any day !
Effective disposal or hutfull disposal is a stat we should look at too.

[blackandred]

One need look no further than Centrals to prove the point. Their game plan is simple. Move the ball down the wings and flanks while leaving the CHF area clear. Centre the ball to a leading player who enters the space and has a shot from the corridor with the greatest percentage of scoring a major. You would have to say that this formula has proven pretty successful for them. The only mystery is why other clubs don't copy it altho it does rely on a high degree of skill and discipline. It would be fascinating to see a model showing where all teams take their set shots from.
It's all about percentages really.
Happy New Year

[Go Legs]

For Norwood it is easy.

Since Adam was a boy we have played, to the ever increasing annoyance of this supporter, as far away from the goals as possible mostly to the deepest part of the pockets as possible hence our poor scoring from opportunities

If ever we should play a game at an oval that also has a soccer goal net on the wings you can bet were we will kick it too.

I seriously think we discipline players for having shots from in front of goals. How dare they bring our game into disrepute.

Just look at the last 2011 finals round for Nowood, yes we were in all three grades, we lost out by applying the above club rule.

In fact SDK hit the nail on the head we had more scoring opportunities than our opposition in every final we appeared in 2011 but lost all the games (durh)

I would buy a copy of Moneyball for every Norwood coach if I thought it would do any good

Cheers,

[redandblack]

After that, GL, I think it's your shout.

Cooper's, please

[Go Legs]

Done R&B, in fact I am having the coldest Coopers Pale Ale I have ever had as we speak.

Cheers,

[am Bays]

For Norwood it is easy.

Since Adam was a boy we have played, to the ever increasing annoyance of this supporter, as far away from the goals as possible mostly to the deepest part of the pockets as possible hence our poor scoring from opportunities

Funny we think that is the the Glenelg game plan Mk 1 too.

At times you think our midfield have individual sponsorship deals with McDonalds (Outer Northern flank) and Phil McMahon real estate (Southern outer flank) as they always seems to kick to those sponsorship signs rather than the hot spot 30 m out dead in front of goals.

[redandblack]

We're hoping to progress to that game plan, sounds good.

Our current plan is to kick towards the opposition goals

[am Bays]

We're hoping to progress to that game plan, sounds good.

Our current plan is to kick towards the opposition goals

Well that's where your players are....

[redandblack]

Makes sense, then, dunnit.

We're not stoopid

[am Bays]

Happy New Year mate, Rubbers on deck as of Tuesday.

[redandblack]

You too, aB.

Looking forward to seeing Rubbers back.