are sturt gone ?? can they make finals ??

[CENTURION]

bring back Merv.

[fish]

Sturt can still make the finals and make an impact once they get there. You just have to look at some of the inconsistent starts Centrals have had to seasons where they still go on to win the flag.

Their season is definitely not over yet and beware any team who thinks it is...

[Squawk]

I’ve looked at the draw for Norwood, West, North and Sturt. I’ve assumed that Central, Glenelg and the Eagles will all finish in the top 5; that South and Port won’t challenge for the top 5; and that therefore Norwood, West, North and Sturt are competing for the remaining two spots in the finals.

Sturt has the toughest draw of those four sides.

All four teams have 2 byes remaining
Norwood and West play 6 games at home and 5 away. North and Sturt play 5 games at home and 6 away.

In the remaining 11 games:
Norwood play twice against Central, Sturt and West
West play twice against South, Central, Norwood and Port and don't play North again.
North play twice against the Eagles, Glenelg, South and Port and don't play West again.
Sturt play twice against Central, Eagles and Norwood.

In the final 5 rounds:(ie "the run home")
Norwood play North (h), bye; Sturt (h); Glenelg (a) and West (h) – ie one current top 3 side and 3 of the 4 teams competing for 2 finals spots
West play Glenelg (a); Sturt (h); Port (h); South (a) and Norwood (a) – ie one current top 3 side; 2 of the 4 teams competing for 2 finals spots and the 2 sides currently on the bottom of the ladder.
North play Norwood (a); South (h); bye; Eagles (h) and Port (a) – ie 1 potentially top 3 side, 1 of the four teams competing for 2 finals spots and the 2 sides currently on the bottom of the ladder.
Sturt have a bye in rd 19, followed by West (a), Norwood (a), Central (h) and the Eagles (a) – ie 2 of the 4 teams competing for 2 finals spots and 2 potentially top 3 sides.

Therefore overall and in the last 5 rounds, IMHO Sturt has the hardest draw and West has the easiest draw, of those four teams that include Norwood and West.

We play South two more times as well i think.

Thanks - edits shown in bold above

[Big Phil]

Could be a nice little bonus for the Double Blues next month...

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl ... 5874146293

[CUTTERMAN]

God knows we need him

[Royal City]

I think ultimately Sturt can make finals.

The big stat and it is hard to argue as AM Bays pointed out. If Sturt want to make finals you would think they will need atleast 10 wins plus a draw. That means Sturt will have to win 7 of their last 11 games. To say they need to start stringing a few wins together is an understatement.

Is it Possible ?? HAVE TO SAY YES

Is it probable ??? HAVE TO SAY NO

[Big Phil]

Fairly evenly matched opinons on this very topic from the SANFL home page poll:

Can Sturt still make the finals?

Yes : (122) 53%

No : (107) 47%

Total votes: 229

[wycbloods]

Fairly evenly matched opinons on this very topic from the SANFL home page poll:

Can Sturt still make the finals?

Yes : (122) 53%

No : (107) 47%

Total votes: 229

107 Pretty silly people out there the answer is YES they can still make the finals.

The 107 may be correct in answering NO if the question was WILL sturt make the finals.

[The Apostle]

[CUTTERMAN]

Bit more Mr Hyde than Jeckyll

[Hopeful Jelly]

Yes they can make the finals. However I think you need to finish top 3 to have any realistic chance of winning a premiership, which Sturt will struggle to do with five-and-a-half losses already (in any year I'd guess a minimum of 12 wins would be required for top 3, so they would need to win at least 8 of 11).

Having said that, who would have predicted after the first month that Norwood would be in the top 3 nearing the halfway mark of the season?

[am Bays]

Yes they can make the finals. However I think you need to finish top 3 to have any realistic chance of winning a premiership, which Sturt will struggle to do with five-and-a-half losses already (in any year I'd guess a minimum of 12 wins would be required for top 3, so they would need to win at least 8 of 11).

Having said that, who would have predicted after the first month that Norwood would be in the top 3 nearing the halfway mark of the season?

Nah 13 wins is the benchmark for finishing third. In close a season you might get away with 12 wins and finishing third but you need 13-14 wins to be sure.

[am Bays]

Looks like it is going to come down to Round 20 at Richmond oval. Sturt v West, the winner will play finals.

[sjt]

I'd like to put money on them making the finals. I reckon they'll do it easy.

[dedja]

the run home ...

West: Central, Glenelg, Sturt, Port, South, Norwood
Sturt: Port, bye, West, Norwood, Central, Eagles

will be tight!

[redandblack]

Why only West and Sturt?

[Thiele]

the run home ...

West: Central, Glenelg, Sturt, Port, South, Norwood
Sturt:

will be tight!

Can see us beating South and Port reckon Sturt 50/50

[dedja]

Why only West and Sturt?

Fair point ... Eagles and Norwood are a game ahead a West but have played 15 whilst West have only played 14.

[dedja]

the run home (amended) ...

Norwood: Panthers, North, bye, Sturt, Glenelg, West
Eagles: bye, Port, Glenelg, Central, North, Sturt
West: Central, Glenelg, Sturt, Port, South, Norwood
Sturt: Port, bye, West, Norwood, Central, Eagles

Considering Sturt play every one of the contenders in the last few rounds they have a fair chance of controlling their destiny, if they are good enough.

I could add the Bays but a huge ask to make up 3 games in 5 rounds (Sturt with a bye to come) but stranger things have happened.

[bayman]

going through the rest of the games i think the ladder will end up like this

central.......32
glenelg.......30
norwood.....24
wwt...........24
sturt..........23
west..........20
north.........14
port............8
south..........5


obviously mere speculation as no one could get every game correct, however i do believe sturt will make the 5 at westies expense & will do major damage when they get there

ps, if i were central i'd lose this week