Qualifying Final Centrals V Sturt @ Football Park 13/9

[whufc]

Interesting McLeay is playing reserves for Sturt right now, so only one more player has to be dropped from the squad which you would think would be Chambers, if the injury reports are correct.

[therisingblues]

Betting doesnt change that much without knowledge, and a former Sturt player runs the show at Sportsbet who moved first, you add it up

Correct me if I am wrong Dutchy, but the odds move with the crowd and reflects what people are betting. The quote goes "Once you put a number on the board it is public property."
The guy who runs the show would be throwing caution to the wind if he has altered the odds to suit his own hunch and ignored what people are betting on.
You bet all the time Dutchy I think you'd know more than me, but what you are saying goes against everything I know about how betting markets work.
Please enlighten me.

[MST]

The former Sturt player Dutchy speaks of no longer works for that particular betting organisation, in fact he no longer works in the industry full stop.

[Big Phil]

ALBERTON:


RESERVES FINAL SCORES:

Central: 5.6 5.8 11.12 13.14 = 92
Sturt: 0.0 6.2 6.3 10.9 = 69



RESULT: Central by 23 points



GOAL KICKERS:

Central: D.Menzel 4.1, D.Allocca 3.3, R.Porter 2.0, J.Kelly 1.1, J.Schiller, L.Hadden, S.Brading 1.0, M.Westhoff, T.Dunne 0.2, L.Habel, Rushed 0.3

Sturt: T.Harms 2.1, T.McIntyre, J.Wilsen 2.0, S.Miles 1.2, J.McLeay 1.1, N.Smith, A.Twopeny 1.0, L.Button 0.2, T.Lee, T.Brimacombe, T.Barnes 0.1



BETTER PLAYERS:

Central: D.Menzel, L.Barmby, L.Habel, L.Hadden, D.Allocca, R.Porter, M.Foldesdy, J.Hardy, M.Frail

Sturt: S.Miles, N.Smith, T.Harms, J.McLeay, J.McDonald, J.Wilsen, A.Davey



With a win today in the qualifying final, Central has now earnt the right to face off against Minor Premier, the Eagles, in next weeks 2nd semi final, with a spot in the Grand Final on offer for the winner. Sturt will now face the winner of Glenelg and Port, the Tigers I believe in a knock out 1st semi final. It started out a very windy day at Alberton this morning with probably a very gusty 6 or 7 goal breeze blowing to the city end. Interestingly, the Double Blues won the toss and decided to kick against the breeze to open the game, which in the end would prove costly.

Despite keeping Sturt scoreless for the entire opening term, the Dogs went into the first break with a 6 goal lead, but if not for innacurracy in front of goal, the Dogs should have been in front by a lot more. Daniel Menzel was magnificent for the Dogs all day to be the leading goal scorer on the ground with 4 while Dave Allocca had plenty of opportunity in front of the big sticks, ending up with 3 goals 3. Young Menzel showed a class and skill beyond his age, no doubt proving he will be drafted to the higher level where he will become a very good AFL player.

A lot of interest from this game was on who was and wasn't playing, which of course determined if there were any changes to either team's league side for the Qualifying Final at AAMI Stadium from 3.10pm. Interestingly for Sturt, key defender James McLeay, named on the extended interchange bench, played in this reserves game, whilst Charlie Sharplesm not even named in the initial squad, but listed in the reserves, was a no-show in this contest meaning he is likely to be in the league side tomorrow, but at the expense of who is the question.

With a fair bit of doubt on Chambers, it is possible with these late changes that the Ken Farmer medallist will not play forcing a reshuffle to the Sturt line-up with perhaps Thurstans to line up at full forward. For Central, Ben Nason DID NOT play meaning he is either going to be left on standby for tomorrow's league game with doubts on Slade and Callinan or he is injured himself. I guess for all the doubts on both side's line up, time will tell about 3pm tomorrow afternoon.

[Hondo]

I posted this last year and now can't recall the exact number of wins however since 1999 Centrals are either 18-2 or 19-2 in all finals (including Grand finals). Their only 2 losses being the 2002 and 2006 grand finals.

An unbelievable era of dominance.

[Chambo100]

2nd Semi specialists.

If you can get em into a prelim maybe a chance for others.

Have they played in a prelim in the last 9 years?

[Hondo]

with no finals losses except GF's, they can't have played a prelim unless they'd made a run from the Elimination final which I don't think they have.

Amazing

[whufc]

This decade we have only played in Qualifying and 2nd Semi Finals.

[Barto]

I was at training tonight and sat in on the team meeting. Chambo is in the lineup. Fit and raring to go.

Well overnight Sturt have drifted alarmingly in Sportbets market for tomorrow game and the flag market, coinciding with the doubts about Chambo, even more interesting as its an ex Sturt player that sets the markets for Sportsbet and the other bookies didnt move their prices until this morning....

Im guessing Chambo is out...

FWIW: Centrebet have Sturt at $4.50 for the premiership and Thornton's only have them them at $4, so the Thornton's theory doesn't hold up even if said player was still there.

[dedja]

2nd Semi specialists.

If you can get em into a prelim maybe a chance for others.

Have they played in a prelim in the last 9 years?

Good too see people have read my post on page 2 of this thread!

[csbowes]

I rate Chambo as a very important player for us when we play sturt, he gives us that loose man in defence

I have to admit... I found that funny!

[csbowes]

I'm assuming Chambo is out...

... any Sturt fans who deny that is a major blow to the team, I think are kidding themselves.

... that said, I'll still be expecting the 22 players who take the field tomorrow to do the job as its not Chambo kicking 10 goals that would win us the game, its the midfield dominating and us just overwhelming Centrals with opportunities.

If that doesn't happen, Chambo being there may not have made any difference. Look at the Glenelg games and the last Central match, it was the lack of dominance in certain quarters by the midfield that cost us those matches.

Chambo didn't run around dropping marks, missing shots, ball just never got there.

[dedja]

... that said, I'll still be expecting the 22 players who take the field tomorrow to do the job ...

Great strategy ... the Dogs will only have 21!

[csbowes]

... that said, I'll still be expecting the 22 players who take the field tomorrow to do the job ...

Great strategy ... the Dogs will only have 21!

Ahh yes... I want all 21 on the field at the same time too... we can't be too careful about this game!

... if that works, then its just a matter of getting the league and reserve team on at the same time when we play Glenelg!

[Dutchy]

The former Sturt player Dutchy speaks of no longer works for that particular betting organisation, in fact he no longer works in the industry full stop.

News to me, will make some enquiries

Yes markets do fluctuate with $$$ but I found it strange that Centrals firmed and Sturt drifted alarmingly - I know there has been thousands bet on one side of an SANFL game earlier this year at Sportsbet and they did not flinch one bit and didnt alter the prices....comes down to what they are prepared to risk

Who knows at the end of the day, I just found it strange thats all...

FWIW I hope Chambo plays and kicks 10 and wins the game off his own boot!

[Dutchy]

I was at training tonight and sat in on the team meeting. Chambo is in the lineup. Fit and raring to go.

Well overnight Sturt have drifted alarmingly in Sportbets market for tomorrow game and the flag market, coinciding with the doubts about Chambo, even more interesting as its an ex Sturt player that sets the markets for Sportsbet and the other bookies didnt move their prices until this morning....

Im guessing Chambo is out...

FWIW: Centrebet have Sturt at $4.50 for the premiership and Thornton's only have them them at $4, so the Thornton's theory doesn't hold up even if said player was still there.

Who bets at Thornton these days?....very few...doubt they have updated their odds anyway

If you like Sturt i suggest you go to Sportsalive who have Sturt at $7.50....in fact if you shop around you can back the Bays, Dogs and Blues and make a profit no matter who of the 3 win (and take a risk that North/Eagles dont win the flag)

[Dutchy]

Thanks for the Report BP...is the "Better Players" in order?

If so its great to see Sammy Miles get best for the Blues

[Blue Boy]

Did Charlie play in the reserves today ???

[csbowes]

Did Charlie play in the reserves today ???

I really wouldn't play him in the league though. While I think the guy has some talent, I'm just not convinced he's up to league standard, he has magic here and there, but I feel he struggles in high pressure games.

[Chambo100]

Give CSB a break, like me he is probably getting a bit jumpy 20 hours before the game.

Into my pre-game ritual now.............

1 Couple of bevvies to loosen up the elbows.
2 Don't stray too far from the little room...back door starting to become unreliable
3 No deep knee bends....unresponsive! And always a chance you can't get back up.
4 Practising the maggot call song book.
5 Couple of rounds of the Chambo song....and a couple of rounds of 'Black Dog' in case
Zep Boy fronts at FF.

Signing off now before I get too delirious.

Go The Blues.