by MagareyLegend » Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:42 pm
by spell_check » Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:46 pm
MagareyLegend wrote:Just on that though, one day two teams on a precarious position on the ladder are going to be on the same points for & against or the same percentage at the end of the season & the same win/loss & I bet there is no rule for it. Imagine the situation, what do you do - toss a coin?
by Mr66 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 8:39 pm
spell_check wrote:MagareyLegend wrote:Just on that though, one day two teams on a precarious position on the ladder are going to be on the same points for & against or the same percentage at the end of the season & the same win/loss & I bet there is no rule for it. Imagine the situation, what do you do - toss a coin?
I don't know about that, this was discussed last year (see viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3676) and no one else knows on here either.
by spell_check » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:04 pm
Mr66 wrote:spell_check wrote:MagareyLegend wrote:Just on that though, one day two teams on a precarious position on the ladder are going to be on the same points for & against or the same percentage at the end of the season & the same win/loss & I bet there is no rule for it. Imagine the situation, what do you do - toss a coin?
I don't know about that, this was discussed last year (see viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3676) and no one else knows on here either.
If this is the case, then the clubs head-to-head meetings are the next tie-breaker.
If they are level on wins, then the % between the two games is considered, ie, if North beats
Norwood by 10 pts then Norwood wins by 5 pts in the return, North goes ahead.
I THINK the AFL has adopted this procedure, not sure about other leagues.
The statistical odds of two teams having the same wins/losses AND % is astronomical.
I don't it has ever happened regardless of win/loss ratio in any league across Australia.
by Hondo » Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:55 pm
by spell_check » Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:57 pm
hondo71 wrote:2 comments:
1 That caller![]()
![]()
what a classic! I wonder if that morning he realised it was as far to walk to his letter-box as it was to walk back?
2 The chances of two teams finishing on identical % and points would be infestimal .... any stats guys out there able to work out the odds of that happening?
by Grahaml » Sun Jul 29, 2007 11:03 pm
by Ecky » Sun Jul 29, 2007 11:25 pm
Grahaml wrote:I would think that you would be able to apply normal distribution rules to work out the odds. I'm not good enough to do it myself but maybe if you really want to know contact a uni department.
John Olsen, June 2012 wrote:"Reserves teams in the SANFL for the two AFL clubs is not negotiable.
We will not compromise the SANFL competition (with AFL reserves teams)."
by pipers » Sun Jul 29, 2007 11:41 pm
Ecky wrote: most of the uni stats lecturers would know that I am the only statistician in South Australia crazy enough to care about such things..
by Ecky » Mon Jul 30, 2007 12:24 am
John Olsen, June 2012 wrote:"Reserves teams in the SANFL for the two AFL clubs is not negotiable.
We will not compromise the SANFL competition (with AFL reserves teams)."
by spell_check » Mon Jul 30, 2007 12:35 am
by Ecky » Mon Jul 30, 2007 12:39 am
spell_check wrote:What would the odds look like if you made it that a team would have 12 wins and 8 losses with this scenario? Or perhaps 8 wins and 12 losses?
John Olsen, June 2012 wrote:"Reserves teams in the SANFL for the two AFL clubs is not negotiable.
We will not compromise the SANFL competition (with AFL reserves teams)."
by spell_check » Mon Jul 30, 2007 12:41 am
Ecky wrote:spell_check wrote:What would the odds look like if you made it that a team would have 12 wins and 8 losses with this scenario? Or perhaps 8 wins and 12 losses?
Not sure if I understand your question. Are you saying that GIVEN that two teams have both finished on 12-8, what is the chance they have the same PF and PA?
by Ecky » Mon Jul 30, 2007 12:47 am
John Olsen, June 2012 wrote:"Reserves teams in the SANFL for the two AFL clubs is not negotiable.
We will not compromise the SANFL competition (with AFL reserves teams)."
by spell_check » Mon Jul 30, 2007 1:01 am
Ecky wrote:Well, it would basically be the same as the above calculation, without the dividing by 3 factor. Hence the chance of this would be approx 0.00318. or a 313/1 chance. It is more likely because you have already assumed what the teams wins and losses are.
You could do something like assuming p=0.55 for PF and p=0.45 for PA, since they are better than average teams, but this would make bugger all difference.
by bulldogproud » Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:43 am
by Hondo » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:05 am
by Pseudo » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:30 am
bulldogproud wrote:Darn Ecky, you gave away one of the questions on the Victorian Pure Maths exam!!!!!!!!!! *grins*
by Ecky » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:31 am
hondo71 wrote:Does it impact the calc when you take in to account that you can have different PF and PA but still have an identical %
ie, 1000 v 1000
same as 900 v 900
John Olsen, June 2012 wrote:"Reserves teams in the SANFL for the two AFL clubs is not negotiable.
We will not compromise the SANFL competition (with AFL reserves teams)."
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