Please shoot me ... FFS

MEDIA RELEASE

Jarman set to make his mark at Glenelg

Former North Adelaide and Perth Coach, Andrew Jarman, has been appointed to the position as Senior Coach of the Glenelg Football Club for the next three years.

Andrew was appointed by the Glenelg Football Club Board of Directors, following the strong
recommendation by the highly credentialed Selection Committee, established to ensure the best possible coach was appointed to steer the club forward.

The selection committee undertook a comprehensive selection process in which Football Director Justin Scripps, Graham Cornes, Peter Carey and President Nick Chigwidden, were unanimous that Jarman was the man to coach the Club in 2014 and beyond, with a focus of recognizing and developing our young list and maximizing their potential.

With proven success at the helm with North Adelaide during the mid 2000s Jarman's football achievements extend past
his coaching feats. Jarman is a duel Magarey Medallist and All-Australian, Inducted into the SANFL Hall of Fame in 2007, an inaugural member of the Adelaide Crows and played in 15 State of Origin Games for South Australia.

Jarman's playing career includes 110 games with Adelaide, 136 games with North Adelaide and 38 games with Norwood.

Jarman's wealth of football experience at both AFL and SANFL levels, combined with his general knowledge of the game gives
the Glenelg Football Club great excitement and positiveness for the immediate and future direction.

Why change! Im confused, looks like a gardening website now!

The relentless f*ckwitdness of the Crows and Power supporters on this thread reminds me what we've lost when we admitted their f*cktard ilk into the SANFL.

English would be nice

Ilk throw you oik?

nope didn't throw me, just trying to understand what you where saying. What have you lost. What has any power support on this thread said, to remind you of your so call loss?

I rest my case re the whole English as a second language thing

Just sh*ts me to tears that you mindless sheep who follow the two AFL teams from Adelaide thinks the sun shines out of your collective ar*es.

You know what, I don't give a flying *uck what the Power or the Crowz do, pretend clubs in an artificial league, they do not, and will never, represent South Australian football heritage no matter how many state jumpers or creeds exploited for commercial advantage they flog off to the brain dead twerps who think they barrack for them.

With a week to go I will have a crack at how I think it may play out

Assembly
I am not expecting the Liberals to lose any of their existing seats, Adelaide should be held, Dunstan with an increased majority (due to Marshall's profile) and I cannot see Morialta shifting. Van Horst Pellikaan in Stuart is a step too far for the ALP.

In the super marginals - Hartley, Bright and Ashford - it is hard to see the ALP retaining any of these, I am expecting all to be Lib gain.
That will take them to 21 seats in the chamber.

The Liberals have run a massive campaign in Elder behind Carolyn Habib, the ALP in return have only thrown up a repeated failed candidate in Digance. This seat will fall on election night.
Mitchell is harder to read. Again Kris Hanna has thrown his hat in the ring making it a three way race. I would expect most Hanna preferences to go to the ALP which may save Sibbons but the Liberals have thrown a lot at this seat and entered a candidate with a reasonable profile in Corey Wingard. This I think will go down to the wire and will end up a marginal seat for either party as I cannot see Hanna getting higher than 3rd. Too close to call.
Newland, Light and Colton are the three danger seats for the ALP, Newland & Light both have the benefit of sitting ministers. If a swing hits as speculated, I would expect Colton to fall first, the local electorate will see Caica as a dumped minister as having less value as a local member. I think we may see two more Ministers (to join Fox & Portolesi) go in the other two.
That will give the Libs 24 seats, enough to form government in their own right.

The other electorates I think will be interesting:
The battle in Lee between the ALP and Gary Johanson - with no incumbent this suddenly becomes interesting. If Johanson can poll more than the Libs it is his. One to watch.
The Liberals have put a lot into Mawson, this one will be very close. If there is a reasonable swing, this is a big chance to fall. I am going to pick this one to go to the Liberals to take them to 25 seats and another Minister down.
Kaurna has become interesting with the addition of Kym Richardson potentially making this a three way race. The Liberal vote was poor here in 2010 but if Richardson directs his prefs mainly to the Libs this could make this a lot closer. No incumbent for Labor also loses the personal Hill vote that may translate into votes for Richardson. Anything could happen here but I am still leaning to the ALP on this one.
I am expecting the three Independent seats to remain with the incumbents
The only other two seats I can see moving are Florey or Giles. Both I think will be held by the ALP, but if there is a big swing could go.

Overall prediction - Liberal 25, ALP 18 or 19, Independent 3 or 4

Council
Upstairs in the Council I am expecting 4 Liberal, 1 Green (Parnell), 1 Family First (Hood), 3 ALP and John Darley

Looking at the preference distributions The last will be between the ALP and the multitude of Independants & Minors.

The candidates I think have a shot are Kyam Maher (ALP), Esther Simbi (D4D), Mark Henley, Joseph Marsika, Neil Armstrong (Fishing & Lifestyle), Michael Hudson (Shooters & Fishers), Mark Aldridge, Trish Nguyen (Multicultural) & Grantley Siviour (NAT).

Could this finally be Mark Aldridge's turn? The serial candidate has favourable preferences from the LDP, Multicultural Party, Fair Land Tax, Katter, Shooters & Fishers & Your Voice Matters.
The smoky is Mark Henley with strong preferences from the ALP, FREE, D4D, Multicultural Party, Joseph Masika, Legal Euthanasia, Animal Justice, Your Voice Matters and importantly Xenophon.
Interestingly the Nationals And Family First have lodged almost exactly the same ticket.

I am going to tip Esther Simbi (Dignity 4 Disability) to join Kelly Vincent with leftover Xenophon preferences and ALP preferences after Maher and the second Green candidate are elimitated with some reasonable first prefs

RECORDS
Not the ones that play music
The ones EVERY PUNTER should keep
Keep them for a minimum of 12 months
Then evaluate
Have a look where you win and lose
I can't emphasis how important this is
I've recorded bets starting way back in the 20th century

If your losing heavily , it might just be the wake up call you need
Some punters would not have the foggiest just how much they win or lose
They might be hundreds/ thousands lost in short term periods without realising it

Punting is like a sMALl business
Business operators need to keep records of what stock makes $$$ and what stock is a liability
Punters need to as well

It probably does not surprise anyone to see this table. This represents the number of players whose career in each year spanned 10 seasons. It does include AFL listed players who got dropped from their AFL side (or promoted to the SANFL side ;) ), so it may be a bit artificial after 1990, and particularly 1997. I don't think it masks the fact that there are certainly not as many players who are long servers to the League. Or at least return to the SANFL after whatever absence may be - AFL, country, work etc

1990 46
1991 45
1992 46
1993 36
1994 29
1995 35
1996 36
1997 40
1998 34
1999 29
2000 36
2001 38
2002 38
2003 37
2004 35
2005 32
2006 31
2007 30
2008 39
2009 27
2010 34
2011 26
2012 28
2013 20
2014 22* as of Round 13

I've done plenty of gambling over the last 12 or so years. Really enjoy it.

Started back in about 2004 when I got some info from a mate that Gavin Wanganeen was going to pull out of our game against the roos at the dome. I think Damon White and Brad Symes both played their debuts that game. Anyway, long story short, went down to the pub, had to get the barman to show me how to use the tab. Put $50 on the roos at $2.10 and another $20 on them over 39.5, paid $6ish from memory.
The roos went on to win by 91pts (I think), I've been hooked ever since!

Joined a footy forum shortly after that, started punting on games, hit a few winning streaks and started to take it a bit more seriously. Was making money but nothing serious.

In Oct 2005 I joined a new site by the name of Betfair.
Was getting crazy prices. The lions won in Perth vs the Eagles. The bookies paid $4.25 and I got $8.50 on Betfair. I was loving it.

I was just punting and starting to develop some systems to go with just my judgement.
The best system I had was "Last week loser vs Last week winner". Back the loser at the line this week. - Basically worked on the theory that punters overreact to the previous results. I was profitable, hitting around the 57% mark.

Punting was profitable but I was becoming more interested in the theory of betting, market percentages, arbitrage, etc.
Was going through uni at the time so had plenty of spare time, and was willing to chase the coin.
I'm a numbers man, always have been (Did Engineering at Uni and also did a finance degree as a side interest). So it came naturally to me I guess.

Learnt to trade (hence the name trader) and started to make a reasonable amount doing so.

While trading / monitoring my positions, I started to kill time by playing online poker.
Never deposited into an account, but pulled out plenty of reasonable amounts over a two-or-so year period.
Playing free-rolls, and bonus whoring were the keys. Whenever I needed to withdraw from an account I would just chip dump to a mate who had real accounts. Certainly not massive money, but for a side interest it was buying a few cartons of beer a month.

However, where I started to strike gold was back on betfair in what I refer to as "cross-marketting". This was a gold mine. Could easily lay 103%, after commission. Was getting huge turnover too, so picked up plenty of betfair points, dropping my commission rate and opening up further opportunities to cross market.

Markets became tighter and tighter (used to be able to offer 104% in H2H, now that's 100.5% at best), and Betfair brought in the dreaded "premium charge". Continued doing it a bit after that, but gave up about 18 months ago. I also finished uni and got a "real job" over that time so had less time / willingness / need to do it at the end of a work week so it was certainly an easier decision to give it away.

Still jump on betfair every now and then to trade bigger events (state of origin, brownlow medal market, AFL Grand Final week, etc), but basically would only consider myself a recreational punter now days.

Have started to move into live poker. You'll now see me in at Sky City on average 2 nights a weekend. I'm not a gun, but can confidently say I beat the rake plus a bit of pocket money. Still refining my game, but starting to get to a point that I can rely on Poker providing me a bit of splash cash for the week, not to mention 2 nights entertainment each week.

I love how SANFL and club officials come to the same conclusion we did but months or years later. If they spent five minutes consulting fans they would have known the zillion byes was a dumb ass idea.

Just annoys the hell out of me how they do this time and time again.