Season 2016- Part 2
The Believers:
Despite their obvious failings in 2015, after their 3 week horror run against West Coast, Richmond and Brisbane- the Power’s fortunes did improve over the back half of the season, recording a 9-5 win loss record at a percentage of 119. Sure- in that block was a loss to cellar dwellars Carlton, but Port also recorded wins against the Bulldogs, a depleted Fremantle and Hawthorn, and narrowly lost to Adelaide. The 2nd half of the season wasn’t necessarily about on field performances and who the Power beat, it was more the discovery of depth players to become important best 22 team members, who wouldn’t have been considered at the start of the season.
Rookie elevation Sam Gray was the standout of this group, having an elite end to the season, particularly between rounds 18-23. Gray ranked top 2 at the club, and top 20 in the competition between R18-23 for disposals, inside 50’s, contested possession and clearances, accumulating 34,37 and 34 disposals in rounds 21-23. Transfer that form into season 2016 on the back of a strong pre-season, and Ken Hinkley has a versatile midfield at his disposal. Whilst discussing midfielders, Brendan Ah Chee showed signs in the final month that he too, can become an important cog in Port’s midfield. 25 touches and 9 score involvements against Hawthorn, on the back of 20 touches and 3 goals in a 3 vote game against GWS shows that the signs are there. These 2 names for mine are particularly important alongside the big guns in Boak, Ebert, Wines and Robbie Gray, as increased midfield depth will provide Hinkley with the flexibility to have Robbie Gray spend more time up forward, where he spent 67% of game time, compared with 43% in 2014. Jake Neade began to look comfortable up forward, kicking 8 goals from his final 6 games, averaging a career high 12 touches per game, and Karl Amon when not the sub, highlighted his potential with a 16 disposal 3 goal performance against the Suns. One of these options must emerge themselves to assist Wingard and compensate for the loss of Monfries in the small forward role, both offensively and defensively.
As far as first 22 is concerned, the Power’s on-ball brigade is impressive and almost the perfect age profile. Lobbe (27), R. Gray (27), Boak (27), Ebert (25), Hartlett (25), Polec (23) and Wines (21), whilst up forward, Jay Schulz is the only listed player over the age of 30, whilst Westhoff (29), Dixon (25), Wingard (22) round out the Power’s go to forwards. With the 9th ranked list in the competition as far as age profile- the Power are still well placed to challenge beyond season 2016.
The sceptics:
Port’s hopes of winning the premiership a year after missing the finals reads like a pipe dream, rather than a distinct possibility. Only 2 teams in the last 20 years in Geelong (2007) and Adelaide (1997) have won the premiership the season after missing the finals. Worse still- numbers in large sample sizes put a glaring spotlight on Port as a premiership pretender. Round 12 2014, Port sat atop of the AFL ladder with a 10-1 win loss record, and had its sights set on it’s first Grand Final berth since 2007. Since that loss to Sydney, Port have won 16 of their last 33 home and away games- 10 fewer than Fremantle, and 9 fewer than Hawthorn and Sydney. What concerns me about this stat is the fact that Port Adelaide’s best players have played in a majority of these games. Whilst Port Adelaide’s top end talent is up there with the best in the competition, and the players uncovered in the 2nd half of season 2015 add valuable versatility- I amongst many pessimistic Port fans will still question our depth and our ability to cover not only Ryder and Monfries, but the loss of a Lobbe, Trengove or Carlile.
The Fixture:
Champion Data has ranked Port’s 2016 fixture 14th in degree of difficulty- and it’s not hard to see why. In 2015 Port were dealt as tough a first 5 weeks as you are likely to see, with the 3 preliminary finalists in Hawthorn, Sydney and North Melbourne, along with top 4 side Fremantle, all in the first 5 week block- but Port’s troubles, funnily enough, came against the predicted winnable games in Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong, Richmond, with narrow wins recorded against Collingwood and Essendon.
So with Port’s struggles in 2015 against sides that joined them outside of the 8, how can any punter go into season 2016 backing Port with any confidence?
The key point of our fixture for mine, again, is our first 5 weeks- 4 of which are at Adelaide Oval- St. Kilda, Adelaide, Essendon and Geelong, with our only road trip being to Startrack Oval to take on GWS in Round 4. Playing 2 finalists from 2015 in the first 8 rounds means that we are a real chance to enter our round 9 clash against the Eagles at 6-2, provided we are mentally focused. Of course, there is also the potential for us to treat our opponents with complete lack of respect, and enter round 9 with our season in tatters at 3-5.
Our 12 games at Adelaide Oval see us take on 5 finalists from the previous season, and 10 games against finalists from 2015, compared to 2015 where we played 13 games against finalists from 2014. We are also scheduled for back to back games at Adelaide Oval 3 times over the course of the season, Rounds 1-3, 15-16 and 21-22. Commercially our Adelaide Oval fixture is also favourable with 6 of our 12 home games played at night. Port Adelaide will also head to every state bar Tasmania, with 2 trips to the MCG. Gotta be happy with that, Power fans!
The List:
At the beginning of season 2014- Champion data had 16 Port Adelaide players rate in the top 35% of their respective position, with 4 players rating “elite”. Fast forward 2 seasons and just 12 players rate in the top 35% (11 excluding Paddy Ryder), with just 2 elite players in Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard. Comparing that to West Coast (6 elite and 16 in the top 35%) and Hawthorn (8 elite, 15 in the top 35%), and Port requires a lift from players in the “average” category (Ebert, Broadbent, Polec, Dixon, Trengove, Carlile) to press for a top 4 berth. Champion Data rates Port Adelaide’s list to be the 5th best in the competition behind Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle and Sydney but much like Hawthorn, have a majority of their quality forward of centre. Port Adelaide ranks 3rd in the competition, but must cash in shortly given the age of Schulz, Westhoff and Monfries. Of it’s core group- Port has 15 players aged in the prime age bracket of 25-29, with the quality of this group ranking 5th in the competition.
Port Adelaide’s biggest list concern is defence. Key defenders rank 4th in the competition (thanks to Jack Hombsch), but of Port Adelaide’s 8 small defenders/general defenders, only one player in Jasper Pittard ranks above average. Tom Jonas and Jarman Impey rate below average (bottom 35% of their position), with Jackson Trengove and Bobby Carlile ranking as average (middle 30% of their position).
Valleys’ Final Thoughts:
It’s obvious that CAS has dealt the Power a big blow before the season starts, with Ryder and Monfries being suspended for the season. Port Adelaide has the talent across all lines, the draw is favourable, everything is in place to challenge- but aside from huge amounts of luck with injury to players such as Lobbe/Dixon and Schulz, complacency was Port Adelaide’s biggest enemy in 2015.
Ken Hinkley has publicly declared his desire to scale back the game plan and revert back to the free-flowing style that we saw in 2014. However- whilst it is clear that this team on its day has no problem scoring, it did have season long issues in stopping scores the other way, with team defence needing a massive shake-up if we are to return to the top 8.
Port Adelaide’s strength and conditioning department headed by Darren Burgess is industry leading, so I am backing in their ability to manage our list effectively, and ensure a healthy list and quick recovery from injuries. We are walking a very tight rope with a couple of players- but with an increased focus to avoid complacency, and a favourable draw- Port Adelaide will return to September action for season 2016. Just how far we go? Well luck will decide that fate.
Predicted finish: 4th